Sharad Pawar Googly Shows Who Is The Boss in NCP

In a dramatic move, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) committee formed by Sharad Pawar to decide on his successor has rejected his resignation and requested him to continue as the president for the sake of the party's future and grant the wish of party cadre. Pawar, in a surprise move, had stepped down from the post of national president of the NCP Monday. He may have wished to ensure a smooth transition of power to the satisfaction of all factions, and also settle the question of who is the heir to his legacy — his MP daughter Supriya Sule or nephew Ajit Pawar? 

Pawar’s resignation came at a time when there has been a lot of speculation about the Ajit Pawar-led faction of the party repeating its 2019 misadventure of aligning with the BJP. Ajit Pawar’s ambitions to become the chief minister have been quite clear. 

Will the senior Pawar now take back his resignation?

Sharad Pawar has made a number of u-turns in his political career. He left the Congress and formed NCP in 1999 objecting to Sonia Gandhi leading the Congress due to her foreign origin. Three months later, he joined hands with the same Congress to form a coalition government in Maharashtra, which lasted 15 years. He also served as agriculture minister in Manmohan Singh’s government from 2004-14.

After a hung verdict in Maharashtra in 2014 state elections, when all the four prominent parties — BJP, Shiv Sena, NCP, and INC — contested separately, Pawar saw an opportunity to remain in power by joining the BJP. The NCP offered unsolicited outside support to the BJP and helped Devendra Fadnavis pass the crucial trust vote by abstaining. However, the ploy didn’t work at that time as BJP-Sena kissed and made up a few months later.

What Will Pawar Do Next?

Right after its formation, the NCP had been in power for 15 years. But being out of power for the last 9 years, barring the brief MVA (Maha Vikas Aghadi) rule under Uddhav Thackeray, has hurt the party. Till now, Supriya, the face of the party at the Centre, and Ajit in the state have achieved equilibrium in the party. 

Transition of power in family-controlled parties is a messy affair, more so if the party is out of power. Mulayam Singh Yadav, after winning the 2012 elections, in a surprise move named his son Akhilesh Yadav as the CM. He knew this was the right time to pass on the baton, any rebellion could be quelled by offering plum portfolios.

With the BJP becoming stronger by the day and is already a favourite to win the general elections in 2024, there is no way the NCP can return to power at the Centre without allying with the BJP, feels the section led by Ajit Pawar and Prafulla Patel. The BJP delaying Mumbai municipal polls and a setback in stronghold Kasba bypoll suggest that it is not confident that Eknath Shinde has the support of Shiv Sena voters.

The BJP-Sena combine had won 42 out of the 48 seats in 2019 Lok Sabha elections from the state. It's here that the NCP adds value to BJP to more or less retain its tally in the Lok Sabha with a near about 15% vote share. 

It was touted that Supriya might be chosen as the party president while Ajit Pawar may lead the party in Maharashtra. However, Ajit Pawar may not be comfortable with working under Supriya, a junior and comparatively light weight in the party. Supriya is also not senior enough to lead the party in talks of opposition unity. For this to work, a section of the NCP feels that Pawar needs to be at the helm at least until 2024. 

Pawar knows that a sharing of responsibilities between Ajit and Supriya cannot work well without an alliance with the BJP. But he surely doesn’t wish to ally with thw BJP at this juncture. He feels after the split in Shiv Sena, NCP is now the biggest partner in MVA, and could stake claim to the CM post after elections next year. 

If he takes back his resignation, it can be construed as a ploy to pre-empt and delay a split in NCP by the Ajit Pawar faction. The way supporters thronged to Mumbai and wrote letters in blood requesting Pawar to take back his resignation, shows who is the real boss in NCP. This might have been a way to show Ajit-Prafulla duo that if they plan any split, they could get MLAs, but the voters and cadre would remain with him. 

Will he now continue as president or appoint a working president, taking a position similar to Sonia Gandhi in the Congress? If he continues, what will Ajit Pawar do? What happens to their plan of aligning with the BJP? 

Ajit is still unhappy and has not forgiven Sharad Pawar for not letting him become the CM in 2004 despite the NCP winning more seats than the Congress. Will he pay back now? What happens if he doesn't take back his resignation? 

What would Pawar do next? He doesn't let the left side of his brain know what the right side is thinking, so how can we know? He has asked for some time to think over the decision of the panel. 

The Supreme Court's decision on the legitimacy of the Shinde government is also pending. All of this makes the political situation in Maharashtra very complex to comprehend and predict.

The author is a political commentator and SEBI-registered investment advisor.

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