India-China Modus Vivendi Is Over. From Indian Soldiers To Journalists, Beijing Has Spared None

Three years since China sought to change the status quo in the eastern Ladakh sector of the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the bilateral relationship has gone from bad to worse, probably the lowest, since both countries established diplomatic ties in 1950. From becoming the first ever non-socialist bloc country to establishing diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to vowing not to bring bilateral relations on normal track, New Delhi has indeed come a long and arduous way when it came to finding a modus vivendi with Beijing.

China is now achieving many firsts when it comes to Beijing’s handling of its delicate relationship with New Delhi. On June 15, 2020, even as China was upping its game at the LAC, 20 Indian soldiers lost their lives at the hands of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). This was the first time since 1975 that China resorted to bloodshed at the border areas violating the border protocols.

For the first time in the history of India-China relations, Beijing has asked Indian journalists to leave the country in a show of further deterioration of ties. This is something that did not take place even when India and China fought a war in 1962, over the undemarcated 4,057 km-long disputed border.

The Galwan battle was fought with sticks and clubs because according to a 1996 agreement guns and explosives cannot be used in the border areas. However, sources within the government have said that both sides are now not following any of those conditions after the Chinese army first violated it.

While “peace and tranquility” in the border areas have been fragile with occasional skirmishes taking place, sometime resulting in flare-ups such as in 2013 and 2017, this is the first time ever that China took this extreme step of removing Indian journalists from their country, probably after being tutored by their all-weather friend Pakistan, which took a similar move in 2014.

And such a debilitating move has taken place despite the fact that in the last six months, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar met his Chinese counterpart Qin Gang twice, and that too in person in India. Even Li Shangfu became the first Defence Minister of China to visit India after the Galwan fight. The decision of removing Indian journalists is, thus, a manifestation of the fact that nothing at all was achieved during these in-person meetings, rather the acrimony has only heightened.

‘Modus Vivendi’ By Vajpayee In 1979, Gandhi In 1988

In October last year, addressing a conference on ‘China’s Foreign Policy and International Relations in the New Era’ by the Centre for Contemporary China Studies (CCCS), Jaishankar had categorically said: “Establishing a modus vivendi between India and China after 2020 is not easy. Yet, it is a task that cannot be set aside. And this can only become sustainable on the basis of three mutuals — mutual respect, mutual sensitivity and mutual interest.”

However, eight months since then, the external affairs minister has made it clear in no uncertain terms that New Delhi will not be able to do what former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee did when he “sought a modus vivendi” with China in 1979 or what former PM Rajiv Gandhi did in 1988 when he visited Beijing.

The fact that Vajpayee “sought a modus vivendi” with China was mentioned by Jaishankar in December 2021 while he was delivering an address at the Second Atal Bihari Vajpayee Memorial lecture.

In February 1979, Vajpayee, the then Indian foreign minister, visited China heralding a new chapter in the bilateral ties even as Beijing put an end in supporting the insurgents in the Northeast. Following this, in December 1988, former PM Rajiv Gandhi undertook a visit to Beijing and met Chinese strongman Deng Xiaoping. He became the first PM to visit China after a gap of 34 years. Prior to that, it was India’s first PM Jawaharlal Nehru, who visited that country in 1954. Gandhi’s visit resulted in re-affirming the ‘Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence’, which was jointly initiated by China and India.

In fact, ex-PM Gandhi’s visit took place right after India and China had a military confrontation at the Sumdorong Chu valley in Arunachal Pradesh that began in June 1986 when both militaries came face to face. It is also known as the Wangdung Crisis when China’s military adventure turned into something where they had to resort to a “face saving pull out” even as the Indian Army mobilised 50,000 troops.

These two historic visits coupled with sustained diplomacy and leadership acumen on both sides kept the relationship afloat culminating in the signing of ‘Border Peace and Tranquility Agreement of 1993’ under which confidence building measures were chalked out. Subsequently, many other border protocols came into being with the sole objective of maintaining peace and tranquillity in the border areas while talks on the boundary question were held in the parallel track.

Shivshankar Menon, former National Security Advisor and Foreign Secretary, notes in his book ‘India And Asian Geopolitics: The Past, Present’ that the 1993 pact “committed both governments to respect the status quo on the border pending a negotiated settlement of the boundary and put in place the first in a series of confidence-building agreements and understandings to reduce the risk of conflict". "As a result, the India-China border was generally peaceful and stable until 2014 despite lack of clarity even on where the line of actual control lies in some sectors,” it adds.

India-China Boundary Question Hangs In Air?

Settlement of the boundary question between India and China was set up under the respective Special Representatives, or SRs. That track seemed to have dried up after the present SRs — National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and China’s top diplomat Wang Yi — held a telephone conversation in July 2020. The SR mechanism began in 2003 after Vajpayee’s visit to China as PM when India and China signed the ‘Declaration on Principles for Relations and Comprehensive Cooperation’.

According to sources, the boundary question is believed to have come up during the two unique informal meetings between PM Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping, first in Wuhan, China, in 2018 and then in Mamallapuram, India, in 2019. But nothing concrete came out of those two so-called informal summits, despite India’s heavy investment into making the relationship work.

Shyam Saran, former foreign secretary and former chairman of the National Security Advisory Board, mentions in his book 'How China Sees India And The World' that China under Xi is “trying to square the circle by presenting China’s one-party Leninist state as the most successful model of governance, worthy of emulation by other countries", and that that the "disarray in which the liberal democracies of the world find themselves in has created an opportunity for China to display the superiority of its authoritarian system".

Meanwhile, the boundary settlement talks between China and Bhutan are galloping ahead. Both countries, last month, agreed to a ‘Three-Step Roadmap’ in resolving the unsettled boundary between them, which includes the strategically located Doklam Plateau situated in the tri-junction between India, Bhutan and China.

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