Earlier this week, a certain news item published in a Hindi daily about India carrying out yet another “surgical strike” against Pakistan rattled South Block, which houses the Ministry of Defence. The matter turned so serious that the Indian Army, in a rare move, issued a public statement denying the news report and said an infiltration bid from Pakistan’s side was thwarted. However, security officials do not also rule out the fact that all is again not well at the Line of Control (LoC), even as the agreement on ceasefire is being challenged every day by the Pakistan Army.
The Indian Army, in its statement to the media, said two terrorists did make an attempt to cross the LoC in the Balakote sector from Pakistan’s side by making use of the terrain there that is endowed with rich flora that helped them to camouflage and infiltrate towards the Indian side. Indian troops, which remain alert there 24/7, were able to open fire at the terrorists following which they were not able to enter any further. Later on, the Army found traces of blood leading towards the Pakistan side of the LoC, which meant the terrorists went back from where they came in and later they “succumbed to their injuries”, according to the Army.
Pakistan, which is reeling under constant political instability, is now being ruled by a caretaker government as the country gets ready for the next round of elections that is supposed to take place in November this year, but in all likelihood will get delayed. The caretaker government headed by Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar was sworn-in to power on August 17, and it will solely be focussed on bringing the $350 billion economy on the path to recovery that is supported by a bailout package worth $3 billion from the International Monetary Fund. The Pakistan Rupee crossed the threshold of Rs 300 to the US Dollar this week. It is needless to say that in a crisis situation like this, the civilian government will not take the risk to lock horns with neighbouring India.
It is clear then that the Pakistani Army, as always, is calling the shots to run the country’s foreign and security policy. A significant development needs to be noted here that days before the infiltration attempt by the Indian Army was “beaten back” from the Balakote Sector of the LoC, on August 14, during the Independence Day celebrations of Pakistan, their Army Chief Asim Munir said: “It is for the conscience of the international community to realise that Indian excesses in Kashmir have gone unaddressed and right to freedom and self-determination is being denied at the altar of the geopolitical necessity.” Calling India a “threat to the regional peace and stability” the Pakistan Army Chief said at the Pakistan Military Academy in Kakul they would not remain silent and defend their freedom.
This year, the India-Pakistan ceasefire agreement entered its second year. The Director Generals of Military Operations (DGMOs) of India and Pakistan had agreed upon the LoC ceasefire in February 2021. Pakistan, sources said, was forced to take such an action not because it suddenly felt like extending an olive branch to India but because there was an internal understanding that was reached within the armed forces of that country about shortage of equipment and logistical issues even as the international troops were already on exit mode then from Afghanistan.
Pakistan Blames India, New Delhi Should Hold Elections in J&K
Meanwhile, Pakistan, which was busy with its own internal issues while being completely unaware of the “surgical strike” report, suddenly blamed the Indian forces, that too a day after, for violating the ceasefire agreement. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan summoned Indian Charge d’ Affaires at the Indian High Commission in Islamabad “to register Pakistan’s strong protest".
According to the MoFA, Indian forces had killed a 60-year-old civilian, Mr Ghias, a resident of Oli village of Kotli district. Islamabad said the incident took place in the Nikial sector of the LoC on August 21. “Emphasizing the need for maintaining peace and tranquillity at the LoC, it was underscored that such acts are in clear violation of the 2003 Ceasefire Understanding, reaffirmed in February 2021,” said the MoFA.
It added: “It was stressed that utmost caution should be exercised by the Indian forces as targeting innocent civilians is contrary to human dignity and international human rights and humanitarian laws. The Indian side was urged to investigate the incident and respect the Ceasefire Understanding.”
While India has not officially responded to this statement, sources confirmed that the ceasefire understanding between both sides is now just on paper and it is a matter of time when the violations will increase from Pakistan’s side. According to intelligence reports, Pakistan has substantially stepped up infiltration activities since the middle of this year.
The point that needs to be noted here is the fact that such incidents will be on a rise now that both countries are headed for elections, and by 2024 a lot may take place in terms of adhering to the ceasefire understanding by the DGMOs. Apparently, the DGMOs have maintained a steady channel of communication as and when the situation arises.
On August 22, the day Pakistan summoned India’s top diplomat posted there, a Pakistani media outlet reported quoting a statement issued by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) that Pakistan Rangers have caught six Indian nationals inside Pakistani territory between July 29 and August 3 along the international border. It also said these people were attempting to smuggle narcotics and weapons.
Pakistan is now also facing massive resistance from the Taliban in Afghanistan, which is why their armed forces are busy managing the western border. Six Pakistani soldiers were killed earlier this week in a fight with the Pakistan Taliban, also known as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), near the Afghanistan border.
At a time like this, it will be prudent for the Pakistani Army to remain focussed on the internal situation of their country and bring some semblance of stability there rather than constantly focussing on Kashmir. For India, it should keep a tight vigil on the borders and ensure that assembly elections are held in Jammu and Kashmir before the country goes to general elections in 2024. Then and only then can it effectively give a befitting reply to its nuclear-armed neighbour.
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