Biparjoy Has Passed. But Not Every Cyclone Is Likely To Spare Mumbai

High tidal waves lash the shore at Marine Drive ahead of the landfall of Cyclone Biparjoy, in Mumbai, on June 15, 2023. ( Image Source :PTI )

The only damage that the cyclone Biparjoy caused to Mumbai is that it has delayed the onset of monsoon in the city. Generally, the rainy clouds knock Mumbai’s door by the 10th of June, but due to the severe cyclone, the monsoon is expected to arrive around ten days late. Mumbaikars eagerly await the rains not only to escape the heat but also to replenish the lakes that supply water to the city. While the cyclone spared Mumbai this time, it has also served as a warning for the future.

Previously, cyclones primarily formed in the Bay of Bengal and targeted the eastern coast of India. States like Odisha, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu have witnessed the destructive power of cyclones multiple times in recent history. However, a significant change over the past decade and a half is the increased frequency of cyclones in the Arabian Sea along the western coast of India. In recent years, the western coast has been frequently battered by strong cyclones like Fayan, Nisarga, and Tauktae. In fact, cyclones have become an annual occurrence, and some years even see two of them.

So far, Mumbai has been fortunate enough to avoid a direct hit from a cyclone. Most of the devastation caused by cyclones has occurred south of Mumbai, in the Konkan region. The recent Biparjoy followed a trajectory parallel to the Mumbai coastline but veered northwest and made landfall in Kutch and Saurashtra. As a precautionary measure, fishermen were instructed to bring their boats back to shore, and motorboat services from the Gateway of India to Alibaug and Elephanta were suspended. Tourists were also temporarily prohibited from visiting the beaches.

Although Mumbai has been lucky thus far, it cannot be taken for granted that it will continue to be spared in the future. I recall an interaction with Amitav Ghosh, a renowned author and environmentalist, who emphasised the direct link between the frequency of cyclones in the Arabian Sea and global warming. He warned that since Mumbai has encroached upon the sea, the sea will eventually reclaim what has been taken from it. Numerous studies have revealed alarming predictions about Mumbai's future, with some indicating that a significant portion of South Mumbai will be submerged by 2050. Mumbai endured a catastrophic deluge on July 26, 2005, claiming the lives of over 700 people.

While the authorities have devised a climate action plan, we, as proud citizens of our city, must also contemplate ways to reduce our carbon footprints and mitigate the impact of climate change. More Biparjoys are likely to emerge in the Arabian Sea, and not all of them will head towards Gujarat, Pakistan, or Oman.

(Bombayphile is published every Saturday where Jitendra Dixit writes about the past and the present of Mumbai.)

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