All is not well within the China-led grouping Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) even as the world has taken a transformational turn from when it was founded in 2001 or even when India joined the grouping in 2017 when the discourse around a bipolar and a multipolar world seemed much less important than strengthening the economy and boosting investments.
Six years since India became a full member of the SCO, much has changed in the world with soaring geopolitical tensions across all major and regional powers. From a global pandemic to a Europe-centric war, world leaders have become much more insecure than they were ever before. As a result, for countries around the world now, national security has now taken the centre-stage in governance over economic growth.
Earlier this week, India held the much-awaited Council of Heads meeting of the SCO, or the SCO Summit, for the first time as the chair of the grouping. But New Delhi turned it into a virtual format for some unknown reason. The government could not even give the Covid-19 protocols an excuse because the previous two key meetings of the SCO — the defence and foreign ministers’ tracks were held in person and they witnessed full attendance by member countries.
India’s presidency of the SCO took off on a significant note when Chinese Defence Minister Li Shangfu landed in New Delhi — first such visit by a defence minister of China after the June 2020 Galwan clash between the Indian Army and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh sat face to face with Li and told him that the violation of border protocols by China has eroded bilateral ties between India and China, while nothing meaningful was seen to have arrived at on how to strengthen the security of the region by two to the biggest armies of these two major powers.
Similarly, during the SCO Foreign Ministers’ meet, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar did not flinch even once before welcoming his Pakistani counterpart Bilawal Bhutto Zardari with a ‘namaskar’ in Goa. But it quickly turned into a quintessential verbal slugfest between the two adversaries over the Kashmir issue, and once again the main outcome of the meeting remain elusive.
In both the meetings, nothing substantial came out in terms of a clear and transparent roadmap for the SCO as it faces humongous challenges ahead even as the US and the European Union (EU) tighten the noose of sanctions around Russia’s neck, one of the major powers and a key member of the grouping.
The defence ministers’ track got overshadowed over the visit of Li Shangfu and the different set of statements issued by both sides. But it basically turned out yet another India-China conflicting round with nothing concrete on what the SCO wants to do by way of countering some of the challenges facing all member countries, both in terms of addressing geopolitical challenges or economic troubles whereas rising food and energy costs, something that is faced by all the countries in the region since the Russia-Ukraine was began and even before.
No surprise for guessing that the foreign ministers' meeting too got mired into an India-Pakistan duel of sorts on a multilateral forum. Even during his opening remarks, Jaishankar indirectly taunted Pakistan while highlighting the issue of terrorism.
No Concrete Plan For SCO
The fact that India is feeling claustrophobic within the SCO started to become clearer when during the 2022 SCO Summit, held under the presidency of Uzbekistan, Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not attend the official summit dinner held in Samarkand. He was the only leader who was absent at that dinner.
This year, when it was India’s turn, New Delhi managed to save itself from hosting the official dinner by keeping the meeting in virtual format.
During this year’s summit, it seemed as if the leaders came there to dish out their own grievances and vent out anger at their adversaries while keeping a show of bonhomie, because after all the SCO is also welcoming some new members who are also anti-west.
For Putin, this year’s summit gave him the much-needed opportunity to show the world that everything is fine in Russia and the chapter of Wagner mutiny is now history.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, who never misses an opportunity to show himself as the indispensable ruler of China, utilised this moment to lambast the West and boast about the growing clout of his country by way of bringing development in the world with his Belt and Road project.
In his usual grandstanding demeanour, President Xi said all countries in the region must “improve global governance” and “promote world peace, drive global development and safeguard the international order”. He also said China opposes “hegemonic, high-handed, and bullying acts”.
PM Modi, the host of this year’s summit, indirectly pushed other countries to unite against Pakistan for using cross-border terrorism as an instrument of state policy while he also came down on China for not respecting territorial sovereignty and integrity of India in its mega infra plan.
India, which entered the SCO rather yearning for a full-fledged membership, joined the grouping in an attempt to showcase its strategic autonomy as it did not want to be seen under full American embrace. But from 2017 till now, India has come much closer to the US, the closest it can get by joining the Quad, which China calls as an Asian NATO.
In 2017, the US-based RAND Corporation had said in a report that China will “regret” India’s entry into the SCO. "New Delhi likely will continue to criticize the corridor in the context of the SCO because, as a full member, India has the right to protest developments that do not serve the interests of all SCO members. The SCO also offers another public stage for India to constantly question the intent behind China's exceptionally close ties to Pakistan,” RAND Corporation’s Derek Grossman noted.
The widespread belief in China is that India is joining hands with the US and the others to "contain China".
Earlier this week, addressing the annual ‘World Peace Forum’ organised by The Tsinghua University in Beijing as a panelist, former foreign secretary Shyam Saran said China should begin to see its relationship with India through the “prism of its own merits”.
The summit could not be more poorly timed. It took place within days of PM Modi’s first ever state visit to the US where the growing strategic ties between both sides were starkly visible. Needless to say, this added fuel to the fire in the minds of the Chinese leadership. This, at a time when the acrimony between the US and China have gone deeper.
But India will continue to remain firmly positioned in the SCO due to its ambition of creating a multipolar Asia where a strong presence in the Eurasian region is both crucial as well as critical.
India, Central Asia Seeks Partnership with US
Before the SCO was founded, the ‘Shanghai Five Process’ was convened in 1996 by China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan. The primary objective was to counter the Western influence, especially the United States.
Today, as the Russian President Putin seeks to review history by questioning the disintegration of the USSR and its fallout, the Central Asian states have become cautious in their approach. They are now seeking to play the old balancing game wherein they are looking at India, China as well as the US while weaning away their dependence on Moscow.
“A stable and secure Central Asia contributes directly to U.S. efforts to counter terrorism, support regional stability, promote energy security, and enhance economic prosperity in the region and beyond,” the US State Department said in 2020.
While the US at that time looked at Central Asia more from the prism of Afghanistan, post its withdrawal from there, Washington has sought to firm up its diplomatic efforts in the region by taking the C5+1 diplomatic forum to another level. It now talks of “sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity” of Central Asian states.
The SCO is now also seeking to expand its membership in order to come out as a more stronger and resilient grouping that is against the American hegemonic tendencies. However, with the addition of Iran and thereafter Belarus in 2024, the tensions within the SCO are only going to rise if it does not come out with a solid roadmap and a vision for the future immediately.
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