Massive support for Modi, but mixed view of Modi Sarkar

Over the past week I ran two opinion polls on Twitter, the social media platform whose most prominent user in India, possibly across the world, is Prime Minister Narendra Modi. All Ministers and senior bureaucrats of Modi Sarkar are present on Twitter too, as are the top leaders of the BJP, including party president Amit Shah.

The reason for this elaboration is to explain why I chose Twitter, which people say hosts the largest number of BJP supporters online, to run two polls to gauge popular responses to Modi Sarkar's hits and misses as it completes three years in office.

The insurgent politics of 2014 that led to the Great Disruption unsettling the Commentariat, unnerving the Elite and demolishing the Establishment, has by now become the new normal as demonstrated by the results of the Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand Assembly elections and lesser polls like those held to elect local bodies in Odisha, Maharashtra and, most recently, Delhi. Mr Modi continues to ride an unprecedented popularity wave; the BJP continues to piggyback that popularity to unprecedented electoral victories; and Mr Shah is not exaggerating when he paints a future where the party will rule India from Panchayat to Parliament.

The findings of a third poll, also conducted on Twitter, possibly reflect the tectonic shift that is happening far away from Lutyens's Delhi. We will come to that later. For the moment, let's take a look at the two polls to measure popular sentiments on perceived successes and failures of Modi Sarkar. The randomly listed options were based on Twitter chatter indicating prevalent preferences of issues of concern among both supporters and critics of the Government.

The first poll was hinged to the question: 'As Modi Sarkar completes three years in office, what do you think is the NDA Government's weakest link?' There were 7,526 respondents who voted; many others listed issues other than those mentioned in the poll. We will stick to those who voted. This is how it went:

Lack of education reforms -- 36%
No robust security policy -- 34%
Rapidly vanishing jobs -- 22%
Failure of Namami Gange -- 8%

What emerges is that there is a strong sense of disappointment that despite its huge mandate, commitment and intent, Modi Sarkar has failed to deliver on much expected education reforms by way of policy at all levels -- school to university -- of a system that is corroded beyond repair. Education features on the Concurrent List but is driven, in great measure, by policies framed by the Union Government. A New Education Policy has been on the anvil; the draft is a mishmash of bureaucratese and the mumbo-jumbo has failed to enthuse both parents and students. The tidal wave of expectation that the damaging RTE Act in its present form would be set right has been roundly belied.

On security, both internal and external, the great high over the Indian Army's surgical strike beyond the Line of Control has abated. The visible decline in the situation in Kashmir Valley, admittedly restricted to three districts and hyped by a ratings-hungry media, and the continued death of soldiers along the LoC and in encounters with terrorists, have fused to create the impression that Modi Sarkar needs to be a lot more tough than it is. The prolonged absence of a full-time Raksha Mantri has begun to chafe and reflect on the popular impression of the state of national security.

This impression gains traction when Maoists are able to strike at will and inflict a terrible loss of lives and limbs. Facetious as it may sound, the question that is being asked is not entirely unfounded, nor is it restricted to critics of Modi Sarkar: How, then, is NDA different from UPA?

On jobs, as employment opportunities shrink and layoffs happen, matched by sluggish investment in industry and poor performance by the manufacturing sector, concerns and worries are bound to rise among young, educated and middle-class Indians who form Mr Modi's, if not the BJP's, core support base. The job losses in the much-hyped IT sector are only the proverbial tip of the iceberg. Showcasing  FDI and hard-selling 'Make in India' make for good publicity, but Mr Modi's 'New India' is far too well informed to buy into official PR.

It is a pity that the response to Namami Gange should be negligible -- it's almost as if it's not on the radar. Cleaning Ganga was supposed to be a flagship project of Modi Sarkar, marking the rise of 'New India'. Sadly, the project languishes somewhere, uncared for and forgotten, at least in popular perception. As a recent programme on ABP News TV showed, progress on Namami Gange has been at best sluggish and at worst missing. Fourth year into his tenure, Mr Modi could perhaps consider the uncomfortable question: Is Namami Gange foundering on the rock of poor political leadership in the relevant Ministry?

Which brings us to the second opinion poll, hinged to the question: 'As Modi Sarkar completes three years in office, what do you think is the NDA Government's biggest achievement?'  There were 3,963 respondents who voted; as with the first poll, many others listed issues other than those mentioned in the poll. And, as with the previous poll, we will stick to those who voted. This is how it went:

Energy security -- 45%
Demonetisation -- 20%
GST -- 20%
Roads and bridges -- 15%

What is noticeable is there was lesser enthusiasm in participating in a poll eliciting responses to popularly perceived achievements of Modi Sarkar than in participating in a poll eliciting responses to popularly perceived failures. This could be because of the nature of social media where negatives tend to rule over positives.

That said, what has emerged from this poll is a huge thumbs up for the incredible path-breaking work done on the energy security front, ranging from power sector reforms to ensuring 24x7 electricity supply to villages, and in better managing the petroleum and gas sectors while taking benefits to the masses by way of schemes like 'Ujjwala'. The vote is a recognition of  the herculean efforts put in by two young Ministers, Mr Piyush Goyal and Mr Dharmendra Pradhan.

On demonetisation and GST, the respective responses would suggest that the jury is still out, with a fifth of the respondents voting for both as the best achievement of Modi Sarkar. Unfortunately, popular perception of the Government's thrust on infrastructure is far from reflecting, even remotely, the claims made so far. It is entirely possible that there is a huge gulf between perception and reality, but that would be largely due to poor communications and the failure to showcase work that is claimed to have been done.

All these responses are dwarfed by the response to a third poll that I have referred to. The poll was hinged to the question 'BJP president Amit Shah says BJP should be in power from Panchayat to Parliament. Your response to One Nation, One Party, One Leader?' There were 2,890 respondents to the poll. Sixty-three per cent voted for the option 'Idea whose time has come'.

That takes us to where we began. Three years on Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains unassailable, his popularity is way, way ahead of all other pretenders, claimants and charlatans, and unless something hugely disruptive by way of insurgent politics within insurgent politics, like revolution within revolution, happens, he will remain the most credible leader in whom Indians will repose their trust for the foreseeable future. As most people I know tell me, "We are with Modiji".

PS: A disclosure would be in order. Most people I know are not Bengalis, Tamils and Malayalees.

Kanchan Gupta is Commissioning Editor & Commentator, ABP News. Columnist. Blogger. He tweets @KanchanGupta

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