After sorting the leadership issue, the next big challenge for Congress is formation of the Cabinet, which will implement the five guarantees in its manifesto. 


Karnataka Chief Minister-elect Siddaramaiah and his deputy DK Shivakumar will be taking oath on Saturday along with a handful of Cabinet ministers. While the Congress High Command has meandered through the tricky leadership issue, it now needs to satisfy the claims of various groups/lobbies in formation of the ministry. 


Few leaders like G Parameshwara and groups like Dalit and Lingayats are visibly upset at being denied the Deputy CM chair. Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar, with the blessings of Mallikarjun Kharge, will need to strike a fine balance in order to justify the huge mandate given by the people of Karnataka. 


Difficult Choice - Many Claimants


The sharp contrast this time for Congress is that it has won support even from till now elusive and influential blocks like Lingayats and Vokkaligas. Thirty seven MLAs from the Lingayat community and 22 from Vokkaliga community have won from Congress. However, a section of supporters can claim that Vokkaligas have already been rewarded with Shivakumar being made the Deputy CM.


Congress also swept the ST reserved seats despite higher reservation promise of the BJP. Thirty six MLAs from SC-ST community have won. 


Nine Muslims have won on Congress ticket and they are demanding Deputy CM post (not possible) and five ministerial berths. Ten Kurubas, who have got their CM in Siddaramaiah, and 18 OBCs have won. Three Brahmins have also won and they can't be ignored because of their influence. 


Karnataka can have a maximum of 33 ministers, including the Chief Minister. Some of the leaders who may be included are Laxman Savadi, KH Patil, MB Patil (Lingayat), Priyank Kharge Parameshwara, Mahadevappa, Muniyappa (SC), Ramesh Jarkiholi (Valmiki), RV Deshpande (Brahmin), UT Khader and Tanveer Sait (Muslim). 


Regional Factors Complicate Decision 


Congress has defeated BJP in all regions except Coastal Karnataka. Even in BJP strongholds of Bombay and Central Karnataka, the party has done exceedingly well on account of support of Lingayats and AHINDA constituents. 


The party will need to balance the regional considerations very well, specially given the fact that both the CM and the Deputy CM come from Southern Karnataka region, which creates disbalance in the ministry. 


The maximum number of MLAs elected (24 per cent each) belong to the Southern and Bombay Karnataka followed by 20 per cent from the Central region. About 14 per cent of MLAs have been elected from Hyderabad Karnataka (Mallikrajun Kharge’s region), which is the most underdeveloped area of Karnataka. Around 13 per cent of MLAs are from urban Bengaluru while just 4 per cent are from Coastal. 


Formula Which Pleases All


Political parties generally use three to four formulas or a combination of these formulas for determining the composition of the ministry.


1) Ministry allocation can be done in proportion of the caste wise population of the state (jiski jitni sankhya bhaari uski utni hissedaari)


(14% Lingayats, 11% Vokkaligas, 17% SC, 7% ST, Muslim 13%, Kuruba 7%, Other OBC 22%, Upper caste 6%, Christians & Others 3%)


2) Ministry allocation can also be done in proportion of caste-wise MLAs elected on Congress ticket 


(28% Lingayats, 16% Vokkaligas, 15% SC, 11% ST, Muslim 7%, Kuruba 7%, Other OBC 13%, Upper caste including Brahmins 2%)


3) Ministry allocation can also be done in proportion of seats won in different regions (as per table above)


Congress will need to do a balancing act, not only rewarding its traditional vote blocks but also new ones like Lingayats and Vokkaligas. The regional considerations will have to be kept in mind as the top two are from Southern Karnataka and it would not like to appear partial. 


The author is a political commentator and SEBI-registered investment advisor.


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