The build-up comes barely a week before the Congress Working Committee (CWC) meeting which is meant to set to settle the leadership issue. All eyes are on the Sonia Gandhi-led CWC and whether it will make an attempt to pass on the baton to Rahul Gandhi -- or dither yet again.
Going by Shashi Tharoor’s tweet, it appears that the loyalists are trying to pave the way for Rahul. The MP from Thiruvananthapuram tweeted, “This (Rahul’s detention) is the beginning of @INCIndia's revival. Just as Indira Gandhi's arrest in 1979 led to her triumph just over a year later.”
A section of the Congress would be dismayed by Tharoor’s enthusiasm. Some Congressmen were viewing Tharoor and Kapil Sibal as potential leaders who could force a contest for the Congress president’s post. Given the Congress's organisational structure and mood, very few want party polls having a semblance of inner-party democracy.
However, the issue of Rahul’s immediate takeover is far from settled. A powerful section of the Congress wants Sonia to opt for another year at the helm. It may sound good to some but, in effect, it is bad news for both the Congress and Nehru-Gandhi family. In a Prime Ministerial democracy, a non-contender (Sonia having renounced the top job in May 2004) is slated to be doomed. At the organisational level, the party will tie itself in knots, leading to status quo, palace intrigue and factionalism at all levels of the Congress hierarchy.
In more immediate terms, Sonia’s continuation would have a crippling effect on Rahul. With another round of dismal performance in Uttar Pradesh looming large, Rahul’s real chance of heading the party are in the now-or-never zone. After the party's expected defeat in Uttar Pradesh (if coupled with failures in Punjab and Uttarakhand), the young Gandhi will lose moral authority to lead the grand old party in spite of his family name.
There is visible nervousness in the Rahul camp. Strategist and Rahul confidant Prashant Kishore’s presence in Mulayam Singh Yadav-Amar Singh company is a desperate attempt to somehow replicate the Bihar grand alliance model. Congressmen from UTtar Pradesh are dismayed how for weeks and months Kishore kept telling them about the Congress's ability to bounce back '27 saal baad' on its own.
The timing of Kishore’s move is baffling as it comes at a time when the Samajwadi Party is itself going through an intense power struggle. Kishore’s choice of Mulayam and Amar is intriguing as Rahul and Akhilesh Yadav are known to each other and share a similar worldview on a range of issues.
The best course for the CWC would be to announce Congress organisational polls at all levels, including to elect a new party president. A contest for the highest post has the potential of consolidating Rahul’s position both inside and outside the party. It is a different thing that the likes of Kapil Sibal and Shashi Tharoor may not fancy themselves as democracy’s David taking on Rahul.
The CWC also has the option of nominating Rahul, giving Sonia a high ceremonial post and paving the path for Priyanka Gandhi’s formal entry into Congress and politics. Such a course (even if it is not fully spelt out in the coming CWC meeting) would please everybody, at least within the party. It will also be in keeping with the Congress culture developed in recent decades.
Sonia may have lost the 2014 general election badly but she is a politician among politicians. Most of her judgements, particularly relating to herself, have been near flawless. It remains to be seen if her political instincts are still intact.
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