The Monsoon Session of Parliament is witnessing a heated exchange of words between the ruling party and the opposition. All the business days so far have been washed out, and the opposition has brought a no-confidence motion to force Prime Minister Narendra Modi to make a statement on Manipur. The PM criticised the opposition alliance, calling it "directionless" and ridiculing whether a rebranded name can change the character of parties part of the alliance.
The stage is set for 2024 with each block trying to set the agenda and the narrative going into the polls. The INDIA alliance does provide an alternative to the people, but whether that is a credible one or not is debatable.
So, is the 2024 contest done and dusted in favour of the BJP-led NDA?
Ten months is a long time in politics, especially when 25-30% fence-sitters decide whom to vote for in the last days of the campaign. So the elections are still open. However, polls do show BJP favourites of retaining power, though with a reduced majority compared to 2019.
However, there may come certain scenarios that can convert the election into a neck-and-neck fight.
3 Scenarios That Can Make 2024 Elections Too Close To Call
1. If there is a decline in popularity of Modi
This factor is not in control of the opposition, but they would pray for this to happen. After all, why not? As much as 31% of BJP voters and 25% of its allies voted for the NDA because of Modi in 2019, as per the CSDS post-poll survey. This means the Modi factor fetched NDA 8.5 cr out of 27.5 cr votes it got. The lead of NDA against the UPA in 2019 was 11 crore votes, implying the Modi factor contributed to almost 80% of it. Current surveys do not show any decline in Modi’s popularity.
However, 10 months is a long time in politics. Who would have thought that Indira Gandhi, at the peak of her popularity in early 1972 after the Bangladesh liberation war, would impose Emergency in 1975 leading up to her loss in 1977. If any decision Modi takes backfires, it could dent his popularity.
2. If there is decent vote transfer between INDIA alliance partners
The impact of alliance would be positive if parties representing I.N.D.I.A. alliance are able to seamlessly transfer votes to each other with minimal leakages.
In 190 BJP-versus-Congress contests in 2019, there were 19 seats where the third ranked party scored more votes than the margin of victory. As many as 13 of these were won by the BJP. Here, the role of alliance is comparatively less.
In 185 BJP-versus-tegional parties contests in 2019, there were 55 seats where the party finishing third scored more votes than the victory margin. As many as 35 of these seats were won by the BJP where the Congress party spoiled the game of regional forces. The power of alliance can be felt by the NDA in such seats.
So, the contest for around 50 BJP seats could become too close to call in 2024, if everything else remains the same.
3. If there is decent anti-incumbency against local MPs
Ten years is a long time in politics to develop natural anti-incumbency. There is a growing perception on the ground that while Modi is popular, the same cannot be said about all of the BJP’s members of Parliament.
In 2019, BJP had denied tickets to 45% MPs to negate this kind of anti-incumbency. Even in a general election, around a third of voters cast their votes on the basis of local candidates. Even the RSS mouthpiece has warned against BJP cadre and leaders becoming complacent and the party’s over dependence on Modi.
So, if there is a 5% swing against the party (because of the above factors) on the 303 seats it won in 2019 (-5% vote share from BJP and +5% vote share towards the runner-up), it could cost the party 80-odd seats.
To sum up, whether the contest will turn out to be close or remain one-sided depends upon whether the 'INDIA' alliance is able to create an environment in its favour. Only India will tell.
The author is a political commentator and SEBI-registered investment advisor.
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