Thanks to news television, if cricket has become a religion in India, elections are the biggest reality show, with opinion polls featuring as curtain raisers and exit polls as teasers. Both are to be taken with truckloads of salt — especially the latter. With apologies to Aaron Levenstein, exit polls titillate by revealing what is suggestive but often hide the vital.
Having said that, errors and omissions excepted, polls do indicate to a large extent the mood of the nation. The 2022 assembly elections across five states in different parts of the country, extending from the Northeast to Goa in the West and large tracts of North India, should provide valuable diagnostics. So, with these riders in place, we must look at Monday's exit poll results for the underlying message rather than the top-line numbers alone.
As the polls stretched over nearly five weeks, Uttar Pradesh with its seven phases finished last following the “First In Last Out (FILO)" principle of inventory management. Because of that, UP is 'top of mind' for all analysts and election watchers. That apart, its political significance is the greatest. Being the most populous state that sends the maximum number of MPs and would set the tone for the Lok Sabha elections of 2024. However, the picture will be incomplete without considering the outcome of the remaining four states, each of which, in their own right, are important.
What Punjab Results Mean
The big story is undoubtedly Punjab, where not just ABP-CVoter but all other pollsters are projecting a landslide for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Though not a total surprise, few expected such a wide lead for AAP. A deeper dive shows AAP has driven a bull-dozer through Malwa and may be looking at bagging 45 out of 69 seats. Interestingly, despite being derided, SAD has given others a good fight to the others running neck and neck in the regions of Doaba, Majha and Malwa. Thus, it may be a mistake to sweep the entire Punjab with the same 'jhadu'.
This makes the outcome of Punjab more nuanced than what might appear at first sight. The split between north and south Punjab is clearly visible. The appeal of AAP’s Delhi style of freebie politics seemed to have swayed Malwa, which is adjoining Haryana and Rajasthan, but left the north relatively untouched. This may have two ramifications going forward. Firstly, this will whet AAP’s ambitions to make its foray into Haryana certainly, if not also Rajasthan. Secondly, although AAP will come to the assembly with absolute majority (something others were hoping against) how it pans out in the longer run given what is going on in neighbouring Jammu and Kashmir.
Congress Won't Repeat Its Goa Mistake
Goa, notwithstanding its size, may have imbibed some political flavours from neighbouring Maharashtra and Karnataka.
In terms of seat projections, it is a toss-up between the BJP and the Congress. The BJP may draw some solace for neutralising the anti-incumbency impact. But Congress deserves credit for salvaging its position from ashes overcoming the initial challenge posed by the Trinamool Congress, which fizzled out even before the fire was lit.
However, as all political pundits would opine, Goa politicians are notoriously ideology agnostic. So, no one will hazard a guess on who will finally form the government. But the Congress is determined not to repeat the mistake of the previous elections. It has deputed heavyweight leaders like P Chidambaram to take on Devendra Fadnavis and veteran Nitin Gadkari, a past master at the game of thrones.
Uttarakhand Can Swing Either Way
Uttarakhand is another close call that can swing either way between the BJP and the Congress. If the Congress is faulted for spoiling its own prospects in Punjab, the same accusation may hold for BJP in Uttarakhand as the state saw three chief ministers in a short span.
Pushkar Singh Dhami may have managed to do some damage control but it was clearly not enough. BJP’s underperformance in Kumaon, Plains and Terai was largely expected. Its performance in Garhwal has been below par, probably pulled down by local anti-incumbency against sitting MLAs.
BJP’s development work and Narendra Modi’s appeal could not bring in the additional delta to tilt the scales decisively in its favour.
Manipur Shows Congress’ Growing Irrelevance
Manipur reinforces BJP’s in-roads in the Northeast and underscores the Congress’ growing irrelevance with an out-of-date strategy. Rahul Gandhi must realise that issues are different and aspirations have changed so old rhetoric doesn’t work any longer. People are looking at mainstreaming with the mainland and the BJP seems to have fired their imagination by quantum leap in connectivity. The first goods train rolling into Rani Gaidinliu station was a defining picture of Manipur elections.
Uttar Pradesh: Performance Matters
Finally, coming to Uttar Pradesh what is clear from ABP CVoter and all other exit polls directionally point towards a BJP victory, though numbers vary. In the past, exit polls for Uttar Pradesh have been woefully off mark. True to form, rival leaders are still making contesting claims it would be prudent to reserve a comprehensive analysis till March 10, when micro details will be available.
However, the region-wise seat projections throw up some interesting trends. Two facts come out clearly, caste-alignment by itself is not enough to win elections. Performance matters. This is reflected in BJP’s better than expected score in Western Uttar Pradesh and strong showing in Purvanchal where the results of development were most visible.
In conclusion, contrary to popular conjecture, 2022 has turned out to be anything but a semi-final. 2024 is still wide open with advantage BJP. The heroes of this round of jousting are Yogi Adityanath and Arvind Kejriwal. Both leaders to be watched beyond 2024.
The author is a current affairs commentator, marketer, blogger and leadership coach.
[Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd.]