Climate Change, COP, Coal, And Consensus, Don’t Go Together Yet

Sunday was the first-ever day of health at the Conference of Parties (COP28) in Dubai — a way to bring countries together to assess progress on climate action as it pertains to benefits on public health. The greatest challenge for public health now is climate change — whether it is air pollution or a pandemic, the impacts are much higher as the world warms up and extreme weather events increase. There is full and complete awareness of this reality, yet the pace and scale of action to halt global warming is wanting. Clean systems and clean renewable energy have been understood as the main drivers of climate action across the international community to tackle this present crisis.

On Day Three at the COP28, as many as 118 countries signed up for a pledge to triple the worldwide installed renewable energy generation capacity to at least 11,000 gigawatts (GW) and to double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements to more than 4 per cent by 2030. The idea was first floated by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen this April. It is based on the best available analyses by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) to significantly reduce CO2 emissions from energy sources by 2030.

The idea gained momentum when India adopted it and presented it as part of the New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration during the G20 Summit. While India championed the cause during its G20 presidency, it surprised many when it refrained from signing the pledge at COP28 on Saturday. Another prominent country that stayed away from the pledge was China.

India and China are making rapid strides in electrifying the power sector, transport and industry. Then why did they not sign on to the pledge?

Why India Skipped Renewable Power Pledge

A read of the pledge text provided some answers on why India could have decided to not sign on. “Recognizing that, according to the IEA and IPCC, in order to meet the Paris Agreement goal, renewables deployment must be accompanied in this decade by a rapid increase of energy efficiency improvements and the phase down of unabated coal power, in particular ending the continued investment in unabated new coal-fired power plants, which is incompatible with efforts to limit  warming to 1.5°C.”

That the tripling of renewable energy must necessarily go together with the phasing out of coal could be considered as an oblique attempt to close the space that remains for bringing more coal plants online. India has defended its stance on coal, especially as it has come to COP28 where other large emitters like the United States of America continue to hold on to their gas expansion plans, and the European Union, despite the good looks on climate finance, is still keeping room for gas. We can guess that the Indian side doesn’t have the confidence that the developed countries behind the pledge have the moral leverage to ask it to wind down on coal, keeping energy security and peak load concerns in mind. These are the very reasons many countries are expanding on gas as well.

India not signing the pledge isn’t a reflection of its commitment towards renewable energy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a commitment to doubling energy efficiency and tripling renewable energy when he delivered his speech at the opening segment of the summit, joined by the UN climate chief and the COP hosts, UAE. Further, India has under way its target of 500 gigawatts of electricity generation from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030 as part of its nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and has a robust energy efficiency programme spanning sectors.

India is among the few major economies on track to meet their Paris obligations. It has installed close to 132 GW RE from its earlier target of 175 GW, yet is determined to making additional power demand be met by renewables where possible. Our thrust on green hydrogen for industrial energy use is also to reduce the load on coal and gas. This will take India to a greener industrial future and help preserve its space in a world where climate action has become one of the measures of geopolitical play.

The World Energy Outlook 2023 states that India is expected to meet its 2030 target to have half of its electricity capacity be non-fossil well before the end of the decade. Several states and companies like NTPC are all underway plans for what a just transition looks like — where the energy economy of the past will be replaced by new and cleaner ways of generating energy — through wind and solar, in such a way that it brings least impact to the social fabric and the GDP of the country. Agreements at international meets like the COP come with large implications for India’s right to development. The fact that technology is becoming fast available, one can hope that solar, wind, and hydrogen will take over the fixation of coal power, and bring winds of change sooner than we imagine.

It is noteworthy that despite the meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and the world’s largest installed renewable energy capacity, China has also not signed the pledge, which experts say could be due to the doubling of energy efficiency, which China isn’t comfortable with whilst committed to tripling of renewables capacity by 2030.

The author is the Founder-Director of Climate Trends, a research-based consulting and capacity-building initiative on issues of Climate Change.

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