Ram Nath Kovind will enter Rashtrapati Bhavan on Tuesday, July 25, as the Republic of India’s 14th President. Though he is unlikely to be a push-over, how he will fare in his role only time can tell and posterity will decide. But the run-up to his election was probably the most significant in recent years. The ramifications of that will be felt at least till the Lok Sabha election of 2019.

The 'cross-voting' in the presidential poll was further proof, if any were needed, of the weakening hold of the Congress’s high command. This is also a reflection on the incapacitated regional leadership – a culture that the Gandhis have consciously bred since the time of Indira Gandhi. As long as the Supreme Leader’s writ run across the land, any titular nominee in the provinces can also exert power as proxy. But it stops when the source itself is shaky. That is the state of the Congress today.

So, in the provinces the Congress has satraps like Sanjay Nirupam who himself is a newcomer in comparison to the likes of Ashok Chavan or Gurudas Kamat. Interestingly, the old foxes in every State have lapsed into an enigmatic silence, whereas it is the young cats that are making the most noise. It is conceivable that these stalwarts are biding their time for an opportune moment to strike. Interestingly, the same is true for many veterans in the CWC who have been decisively side-lined by  Team Rahul.

Simultaneously, clearly reading the writing on the wall about the faltering Congress leadership, leaders of other opposition parties have started creating their own elbow and headroom space. This is most visible in the case of Mamata Banerjee and Nitish Kumar. Others like Sharad Pawar are also quietly moving their pieces on the chessboard. The plot is beginning to get interesting.

The Congress’s inability to deliver the goods has been clearly established in Uttar Pradesh followed by the presidential poll. Besides, a truant persona like Rahul Gandhi cannot be trusted by the veterans to lead them into battle -- he goes missing in action ever time the heat builds up. None of the stalwarts who count would like to deal with Rahul through second rung functionaries of his coterie.

Therefore, no one has any expectation from Rahul Gandhi. In fact, there are serious doubts if the Congress will have adequate financial sponsors to fund them in 2019, who may instead hedge their bets on other potential challengers of Narendra Modi. This is also a reason for those in the Opposition playing for the longer haul to start positioning themselves from now itself to be counted by the political investors.

The most audacious in the opposition spectrum is unmistakably Mamata Banerjee.

She virtually declared war against the ruling party at the Centre with her “BJP Quit India” call at her July 21 'Shahid Diwas' rally in Kolkata. Her strength, she knows, will come from the number of MPs the TMC will take to Parliament. Therefore, she will ruthlessly protect her turf in Bengal by stopping the BJP from making inroads and by further decimating the CPI(M). But whether the Trinamool can get additional seats from other States is doubtful, unless she can stitch up pre-election alliances.

Nitish Kumar, on the other hand, seems to be on a trip to cut his losses. He is moving in a direction to keep himself equidistant from both the BJP and the MGB, keeping everyone guessing. He signalled this by going with Ram Nath Kovind for President and supporting the Opposition’s Gopal Gandhi for Vice-President. By seeking Rahul Gandhi’s intervention for the resignation of Tejaswi Yadav, he has cleverly put Congress in a spot and himself in an enviable 'heads I win, tails you lose' position. Where Nitish is likely to score over Mamata is greater acceptability across parties. However, it may be argued, though he does not have the mercurial streak of Mamata, his ‘dependability’ quotient has significantly fallen since he parted ways with NDA in 2014.

Intriguingly, Arvind Kejriwal seems to have gone totally silent and under the radar since his 'EVM Challenge' fell flat. Whether it is the Kapil Mishra impact or the after effects of the Punjab and Goa twin drubbing, it is difficult to tell. The rest of the opposition has virtually marginalised him by even keeping AAP out of the deliberations for the President and Vice-President elections. This is not to say he will give up on his ambitions. Knowing Kejriwal, he must be plotting a new gig before 2019.

The Southern parties – TDP, TRS, DMK and either faction of the AIADMK -- are likely to hold on to their cards till much later and so will, perhaps, Naveen Patnaik. But, the person who will hold the key to any grand alliance is Sharad Pawar. With many disgruntled Congress leaders in the State and an embittered Shiv Sena, he is the one who can swing Maharashtra for the opposition.

The only group that will still cling on to  the Congress is the Left, using it as a prop to gain legitimacy with the others, especially Trinamool, who would not touch them with a barge pole.

Nature, they say, abhors vacuum. Though the popular theory is opposition is in disarray and Modi will have a cakewalk for his second term, two years is a long time in politics. A new configuration may well emerge in the coming months. However, what is reasonably sure is that it will not have the Congress, in its present form, at the centre of the coalition. That is why the term UPA is increasingly getting replaced with Mahagathbandhan, which could further morph into another name.

At the same time, any viable national alliance cannot gain critical mass without at least some sections of the Congress aligning with it. That will require a churn within India’s Grand Old Party. But, whether the stimulus for that will come from endogenous or exogenous sources will have to be seen.

Unfortunately, one cannot see too many within the Congress who can bring about that revolution. People talk about the young Turks, who are mostly Princelings themselves and come with the same sense of entitlement as Rahul Gandhi. Others are far too beholden to the dynasty and have no base of their own to challenge the status quo. A Chidambaram may have the ambition but he may not have many backers and one does not know how far the cases against his son will go by then.

That is where former Congress leaders, like Mamata Banerjee and Sharad Pawar, can stir the pot. And they could find a mentor and well-wisher in the just retired occupant of Rashtrapati Bhavan. Although he has made the solemn promise of not returning to active politics and living as an ordinary citizen, he may not be averse to playing the role of a 'go-to' elder statesman. Besides, as a doting father it would be natural for him to be concerned about the future of his son and daughter. As things look, they may not have much to look forward to in a “dented-painted” Congress and would much rather join Mamata Banerjee’s party.

So, do not quickly forget the diminutive Bengali leaving Rashtrapati Bhavan on July 25.

(Author is a writer and popular blogger on current affairs. His Twitter handle is @SandipGhose)

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