Political developments in the northeastern state of Tripura took a sudden turn Saturday evening when Chief Minister Biplab Kumar Deb submitted his resignation to Governor Satyadeo Narain Arya. Later, BJP state unit president Manik Saha, who was recently elected to the Rajya Sabha, was named as the new chief minister of the state. The resignation of Biplab Deb, the first BJP chief minister of the state, comes at a time when the assembly elections are only around eight months away. There have been talks for some time that the ruling party may prefer to hold elections late this year — before schedule.


Internal rebellion against Biplab Deb


Though the removal of Biplab Deb came as a sudden development, this wasn’t something beyond expectations. Ever since he became the chief minister in 2018, there had been dissatisfaction against him within the party. Over the last few years, this resentment has only increased. In October 2020, purportedly dissatisfied with the style of Biplab's functioning, at least eight MLAs led by Sudip Roy Barman, who was removed as state health minister in 2019, camped in New Delhi to pressurise the BJP central leadership to change the CM.


Biplab was successful in weakening the rebellion after he brought Sudip’s aide Sushanta Chowdhury to his cabinet. He also accommodated another disgruntled leader, Ramprasad Paul, an old-timer in BJP with close association with the RSS, in his cabinet. Sudip, an ambitious politician said to be eyeing the CM chair for a long time, resigned from his Agartala constituency and the BJP this year and went back to his old party, the Congress. He was accompanied by Town Bardowali MLA Ashish Saha, who also tendered his resignation from the assembly and the party. 


Growing anti-incumbency against BJP


There has been growing anger against the BJP government led by Biplab. State government employees, who played a big role in BJP’s victory in 2018, are currently unhappy with the present dispensation due to their pending dearness allowances. Currently, the gap in dearness allowance between the state and central government employees stands at 28%. Although it is likely that the BJP government will try to reduce this gap before the elections, it’s a fact that the  party, as of now, has failed to fulfil the aspirations of the employees. 


The current dispensation has also failed, as of now, to find a solution for the 10,323 retrenched teachers. Before the 2018 elections, BJP leaders had promised to find a solution if the party was elected to power. Another major factor that ended the 25 years' rule of CPI(M) was the high rate of unemployment in the state. The BJP had promised before the elections to bring a solution to the problem but unemployment remains a major issue. 


The change of face was imminent


The BJP was left with no options but to go for a new face. Already, the party has been going for organisational changes keeping in mind the upcoming state assembly elections. Recently, it appointed a politically novice Bikash Debbarma as the president of the state ST Morcha, replacing Rebati Mohan Tripura, Lok Sabha MP from the Tripura East seat. Subsequently, the party also changed its state minority unit president and appointed Mohammad Shah Alam. It is expected that Biplab, who was the state party president when the BJP won the northeastern state for the first time, is going to play a role in the organisation once again.


In political circles, Manik Saha is considered close to the Biplab camp. Professionally a dentist and politically novice, he joined the BJP in 2016 and became the state president of the party in 2020, after Biplab resigned from the post. Already a section, including party old-timers, has been quite unhappy with Manik’s functioning as the party president. This year, a section of BJP leaders from the old camp, including state OBC welfare minister Ramprasad Paul, revolted against him and asked him to resign. 


It has been alleged that Manik has failed to expand the organisational activities of the party, particularly in the hills, where the saffron party faces a tough challenge from royal scion Pradyot Debbarman’s TIPRA Motha, the ruling party of Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC). Ally Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT), which played a big role in the BJP's 2018 victory, has become weak in the hills and is currently divided into two camps — one led by state Revenue Minister NC Debbarma and the other by Tribal Welfare Minister Mevar Kumar Jamatia, who is inclined towards joining hands with TIPRA Motha.


The saffron party is already organisationally weak in the tribal belt — and this time, it seems, it can’t depend on ally IPFT either. Although the BJP has inducted Tripura People’s Front chief Patal Kanya Jamatia, earlier an associate of Pradyot, into the party, her influence is yet to be tested against TIPRA Motha. The tribals influence around 35-36 assembly seats. Out of these, 20 are reserved for STs — although non-tribals are in majority in around 6-7 of these. The tribals account for 31% of the state's population and hold the key to any party's ascension to power.


Another weak BJP CM?


The appointment of Manik Saha, who was sent to the Upper House recently, as the new chief minister clearly hasn’t gone well with a section of the party. Already, Ramprasad Paul has openly revolted against the appointment of Manik by indulging in a ruckus inside the state party office. Another MLA Parimal Debbarma has also expressed his dissatisfaction with the way Manik was elected as the leader of the legislature party. 


It’s not that the party didn’t have other options. There were two frontrunners — Union minister Pratima Bhowmik and current deputy chief minister Jishnu Dev Verma, a member of the royal family and the party’s tribal face. Since becoming the Union minister last year, Pratima, the party’s prominent women face, has emerged as a popular leader of the party in the state. Both the leaders have been involved with the BJP since the 1990s.


The road ahead is already difficult for new Chief Minister Manik Saha. He isn’t certainly on a strong wicket and will have to depend more on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity to do well in the upcoming state assembly polls. It’s a fact that Modi remains very popular in the state because of the successful implementation of welfare schemes of the central government on the ground. 


The author is a Tripura-based political commentator.


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