Caste Census: In the diverse tapestry of Indian society, caste has long been a defining feature, shaping political alliances, influencing economic opportunities, and perpetuating social hierarchies. It is an intrinsic part of the Indian way of life. A caste census, however, has somehow eluded the nation. And the prospect of a nationwide caste census has now ignited a political firestorm, after the release of a caste survey in Bihar, which revealed that a substantial 63% of the state's population belonged to castes listed under the Extremely Backward Classes (EBC) and Other Backward Classes (OBC) categories. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's rejection of the demand for a comprehensive caste census put forth by the Congress and other opposition parties has set the stage for a high-stakes political showdown, which may have consequences both for the ruling party and the opposition I.N.D.I.A. bloc as the country is set to go to general elections in 2024.
Bihar became the first state in India to release its findings of a caste survey — an exercise being seen as an attempt by the opposition to put OBC politics on the boil ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. The clear goal is to wean away a section of OBCs who have veered towards the BJP because of higher representation in power, including the position of the PM himself.
The BJP has hit back at the opposition's attempt to divide people on caste lines, calling it divisive politics. The party’s successful formula of uniting voters under the Hindutva umbrella and in the name of nationalism could face challenges if OBCs are lured by the promise of “jitni abadi utna haq”.
OBC support to the BJP has doubled from 23% in 2009 to 44% in 2019, as per the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). Today, every second voter of the BJP is a from an OBC community. During the same period, the Congress has lost 9% support and regional parties (including Janata Dal constituents) 12%. With OBCs accounting for anywhere between 42% and 52% nationally, they are now the kingmakers for 2024.
What I.N.D.I.A. Hopes To Gain From Caste Census
The I.N.D.I.A. bloc has made its intentions clear of promising a caste-based census in its manifesto, which the BJP has so far opposed. Nitish Kumar and Rahul Gandhi have been backing the demand for removal of the ceiling of 50% reservation cap, and it is likely that I.N.D.I.A. would promise reservation proportionate to population in its manifesto. It could also demand reservation of seats in Parliament for OBCs on the lines of seats reserved for SC-ST.
The Opposition wishes to paint the BJP as a party of agadas (forward caste), and convert the caste demand into a agada versus pichchda (backward caste) fight. While the BJP has the highest number of OBC MPs in Parliament, the opposition alleges the saffron party and its ideological parent RSS are driving the agenda of upper caste and are anti-reservation.
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar hopes that with unemployment at peak levels, the reservation promise could lure OBC youth towards the I.N.D.I.A. bloc. This could soon result in a social movement akin to Mandal 2.O and also help I.N.D.I.A. to tackle the "Kamandal 2.O" politics likely to be played by the BJP after the inauguration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya in January next year.
Reservation is an emotive issue and I.N.D.I.A. hopes to encash it to prevent voter consolidation in the name of Hindutva. The under-representation of OBCs in Indian bureaucracy (3/90 secretaries as mentioned frequently by Rahul Gandhi) and unfilled reserved posts could be used by the alliance partners to paint BJP as anti-OBC. NDA partners like Apna Dal, LJP, HAM, VIP, and NISHAD party have all backed the demand for a caste census.
This does put the BJP in a quandary, and it is treading cautiously on the matter. It has after years of hard work been able to divide the OBC vote into upper/forward OBCs like Yadavs, Kurmis, Jats etc. and lower/extremely backward OBCs on the premise that the upper OBCs have cornered a majority of the reservation benefits.
Politically too, in socialist parties like SP, RJD, RLD, JD(U), and JD(S), dominant castes like Yadavs, Kurmis, Jats, Vokkaligas rule the roost.
Now, I.N.D.I.A. is adopting the BJP model akin to uniting OBCs in the name of Hindutva, attempting to unite OBCs in name of “jiski jitni sankhya bhaari, uski utni hissedaari”.
How BJP Can Counter I.N.D.I.A. Narrative
The ruling BJP can tackle the Opposition narrative on many fronts with the following messaging:
- It will continue with its successful narrative that the party has given higher representation to lower OBCs (35% in the Union Cabinet).
- The parties part of I.N.D.I.A. represent dominant OBCs and not their interests.
- Of the jobs and educational positions reserved for OBCs at the central level, 97% have gone to people from less than a quarter of all OBC sub-castes as per the Rohini Commission report.
- Over 900 sub-castes have zero representation and another 900+ have only 3% representation. When they have such dismal representation in the current system, what would they do with a higher reservation of 50%.
- A higher reservation will be pocketed by the upper OBCs again.
PM Modi has also raised the class issue along with caste. As per him, 'gareeb (poor)' is the biggest 'jaati (caste)' and 'biradri (community)'. Over the years, BJP has tempered the caste politics with class through its pro-poor schemes, and developed a 'labharthi (beneficiary)' network, which is backing the BJP cutting across caste lines.
If push comes to the shove, if caste census demand issue gains traction, the BJP could table the Rohini Commision report in Winter Session of Parliament and implement its recommendations, thus providing a higher quota within quota for lower OBCs, and a smaller chunk for upper OBCs, in a bid to retain the externally backward votes.
Reservation is a sensitive issue, and history shows that from VP Singh at the national level, to the BJP in Karnataka, whoever has touched it, has burnt their fingers.
The author is a political commentator and SEBI-registered investment advisor.
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