WTC Final Qualification Scenario For India: The third Test of Border-Gavaskar Trophy between India and Australia is underway at Birsban's Gabba, but rain has already disrupted play on the first day. With heavy rain forecasted for the remaining four days, the outcome of this match hangs in the balance.
Following India's heavy loss in the second Test in Adelaide, their path to World Test Championship (WTC) final has already become more challenging.
If IND vs AUS 3rd Test in Gabba ends in a draw, India will find themselves in a very tough situation, requiring both wins and favorable results in remaining two IND vs AUS Test matches to qualify for WTC Final.
Here's how India can still make it to WTC final if IND vs AUS 3rd Test in Gabba is drawn.
India's path to WTC Final if IND vs AUS 3rd Test in Gabba ends in a draw
If rain forces a draw in IND vs AUS 3rd Test in Gabba, India will need to win both remaining matches (4th and 5th Test) in IND vs AUS Test series to clinch a 2-1 series win. This result would directly secure their spot in WTC final, where they would face South Africa.
Sri Lanka's crucial role
Even with a 2-1 series win, India may need Sri Lanka to lend a helping hand. Sri Lanka must make sure to beat Australia in at least one Test in their upcoming home series. A Sri Lankan win against Australia would ease India's qualification path, ensuring they secure enough points to reach the WTC final.
The equation becomes tougher for India if Australia wins
If Australia wins one of the remaining two matches after a drawn third Test, India's hopes of qualification will depend on other teams' performances:
Pakistan must defeat South Africa 2-0 in their Test series.
Sri Lanka must sweep Australia 2-0.
Without these outcomes, India's chances of qualifying for WTC final become highly uncertain, as they would rely entirely on luck and an unlikely combination of results.
To avoid relying on external results or weather conditions, India's clearest route to WTC final is to win the remaining two Test matches against Australia. A 2-1 Border-Gavaskar series win would eliminate the need for outside help and guarantee India a place in the championship showdown.