WTC Final Scenarios For India: India, Australia, South Africa and Sri Lanka are the four teams vying for a spot in the WTC 2023-25 final. The race to qualify for the WTC final has become more competitive, with South Africa now leading the World Test Championship 2023-25 points table after their 2-0 series win over Sri Lanka at home. After defeating Sri Lanka by 233 runs in the first Test, the Proteas defeated the visitors by 109 runs at St George's Park in Gqeberha, moving up from third place to claim the top spot in the WTC rankings.
India had hoped for Sri Lanka to win at least the second Test, especially after their defeat in the Adelaide Test against Australia in the pink-ball match. However, South Africa's victory has not only placed them one win away from a confirmed final’s berth, it has reshaped the scenarios for Team India and Australia as well. India had been at the top of the WTC points table for the first half of the cycle, but their recent form has been disappointing, with four losses in their last five Test matches.
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As a result, the remaining three Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) Tests have gained more significance as it has become more or less a knockout contest between India and Australia for the WTC final spot.
Here are the scenarios for India to qualify for the WTC final based on their results in the Border-Gavaskar (BGT) series:
India's WTC Final Qualification Scenarios:
1. For Certainty in Qualification (Two Wins and One Draw):
- India need two wins and one draw from their remaining three Tests in Australia.
- This would take India to 60.53%, securing at least second place behind South Africa.
- Even if Australia win 2-0 in Sri Lanka, they can only reach 57.02%, which would keep India ahead.
2. If India Win BGT 3-2:
- India would finish on 58.77%.
- Australia could still finish below India if they win 1-0 in Sri Lanka.
3. If India Lose BGT 2-3:
- India would finish on 53.51%.
- In this case, Australia, Sri Lanka and South Africa can surpass India.
- For India to qualify with this score, South Africa would need to lose both Tests against Pakistan.
- Additionally, India would need Australia to at least draw their series in Sri Lanka.