August 2024 Was The Hottest Summer On Record On This Earth, NASA Says

August 2024 was the hottest month on record, culminating in Earth's warmest summer since 1880. NASA data shows a 0.2°F increase over previous summers and a 2.25°F increase over the 1951-1980 baseline.

Hottest Summer: August 2024 has officially become the hottest month in recorded history, capping off what NASA scientists have confirmed to be Earth’s hottest summer since global temperature records began in 1880. Data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York reveals that the past three months — June, July, and August — have shattered previous records, marking a troubling new chapter in what scientists call "the ongoing story of human-driven climate change".

This summer’s global temperatures were 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (0.1 degrees Celsius) warmer than any other summer in NASA’s records, including the previous high set in 2023. The analysis shows that June through August was 2.25 degrees Fahrenheit (1.25 degrees Celsius) warmer than the average summer between 1951 and 1980, with August alone 2.34 degrees Fahrenheit (1.3 degrees Celsius) above the historical baseline. 

Gavin Schmidt, director of GISS, put the results into stark context: “Data from multiple record-keepers show that the warming of the past two years may be neck and neck, but it is well above anything seen in years prior, including strong El Niño years. This is a clear indication of the ongoing human-driven warming of the climate.”

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A Century Of Data Backs NASA Findings

NASA’s long-term temperature record, the GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), integrates surface air temperature data collected from tens of thousands of meteorological stations, combined with sea surface temperatures measured by ships and buoys. Antarctica’s data is also incorporated, giving a comprehensive global view. To maintain accuracy, the methodology adjusts for factors such as uneven station spacing and the urban heat island effect —where growing cities trap more heat than surrounding rural areas.

Instead of focusing on absolute temperatures, GISTEMP tracks temperature anomalies — deviations from a 1951-1980 baseline. This summer’s anomaly is notable not just for its record-setting numbers but for the confidence behind the data, as new research has further reinforced NASA’s estimations.

New Analysis Confirms Confidence In Global Temperature Trends

Recent studies, led by researchers from the Colorado School of Mines, NOAA, and NASA, have increased the confidence in NASA’s temperature record. “Our goal was to actually quantify how good of a temperature estimate we’re making for any given time or place,” noted lead author Nathan Lenssen, who is a professor at the Colorado School of Mines and project scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. 

The research reveals that Earth’s temperature increase since the late 19th century is accurately represented, with summer 2024 being about 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.51 degrees Celsius) warmer than temperatures in the late 1800s. This significant warming trend, the study confirms, cannot be attributed to any errors or uncertainties in the data.

Lenssen’s team also explored how to estimate historical temperatures where there were no meteorological stations. Previously, scientists would use a method that involved calculating a confidence interval — essentially an educated guess with a defined range of possible values. The new method, called a statistical ensemble, provides a broader spread of 200 possible values, offering a more refined picture of uncertainty. 

For instance, if there’s a lack of data from a specific region, such as southern Colorado in the early 1900s, the ensemble method allows scientists to estimate a wider range of equally probable temperatures rather than relying on a single figure with a margin of error. This improvement is crucial for assessing the global temperature record, especially in regions with sparse data.

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How Does This Impact Recent Heat Rankings?

NASA’s new findings reaffirm that 2024’s record-breaking heat is part of a disturbing upward trend in global temperatures. This follows NASA’s previous assessment that 2023 was the hottest year on record — a conclusion supported by independent analyses from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.

However, the comparison between 2023 and 2024 illustrates the challenges in ranking annual heat records. While Copernicus identified July 2023 as the hottest month ever recorded, NASA’s new analysis suggests that July 2024 narrowly edged out last year’s peak. But as the study shows, the difference between the two months is smaller than the uncertainties in the data — leading to the conclusion that they are effectively tied for the hottest month on record.

NASA’s ensemble analysis indicates that the summer of 2024 was likely between 2.52 and 2.86 degrees Fahrenheit (1.40 to 1.59 degrees Celsius) warmer than the late 19th century, while the summer of 2023 was between 2.34 and 2.68 degrees Fahrenheit (1.30 to 1.49 degrees Celsius) warmer. The difference, while statistically significant, underscores the increasingly narrow margins between record-breaking years.

The data from 2024 serves as another stark reminder of the rapid pace of climate change. With records being broken almost yearly, scientists stress the urgency of addressing global warming. While localised weather patterns, such as El Niño, can influence individual years, the broader trend of rising global temperatures is unmistakable.

As Schmidt noted: “We are seeing unprecedented warming over the past two years that far exceeds anything in the past century.”