US Vice-President Kamala Harris has widened her lead over former President Donald Trump in the presidential race, as per the latest polling averages, although the two candidates remain matched in most battleground states, The Guardian has reported.
According to the Guardian’s newest poll tracker, based on a range of surveys conducted across 10 days, the vice-president and Democratic nominee stands at 48.2%, compared with 44.4% for Trump, the Republican candidate – a 3.8-point advantage for Harris. This marks a one-point increase over her position a week ago and aligns with most surveys.
Harris’ growing national poll lead, even by small margins, could prove significant.
According to the report, the polls so far indicate that Harris is likely to win the popular vote. Democratic candidates, the report noted, have done so in five out of the six elections held in the 21st century. However, it added, Republicans have secured victory in two of those races.
CNN data analyst Harry Enten has noted that Harris’ lead varies across national polls. While CNN’s latest survey showed a slim one-point advantage for her, Enten acknowledged that other polls indicate a larger lead, with some showing her as far ahead as six points.
Enten said Trump would hold an edge if the national vote mirrored CNN’s polls. However, this would disappear if Harris were to win the national vote by a larger margin, as suggested by other polls including the Guardian.
The prevailing assumption behind this argument — reinforced by Trump’s 2016 win despite losing the popular vote — is that the Republicans have a built-in advantage in the voting system. This means a Democratic candidate must win the popular vote by a substantial margin to secure the 270 electoral votes needed for victory, as per the Guardian.