Tamil Nadu ABP C-Voter Exit Poll 2021: The Tamil Nadu assembly elections witnessed a massive tussle mainly between the ruling AIADMK and MK Stalin-led DMK. The AIADMK is contesting this election in alliance with the BJP while the DMK has partnered with Congress. Tamil Nadu witnessed single-phase polling on April 6th amid the rising Covid cases and the state registered a huge voter turnout of 72.78%.
While, the results for the 234-member Tamil Nadu legislative assembly will be announced on May 2nd, ABP News along with CVoter conducted an Exit poll to understand the mood of the state.
After polling, the data received shows a Stalin-led DMK emerging victorious with a clear majority bagging the seats in the range of 160-172. The incumbent AIADMK- led alliance is expected to be restricted to 58 to 70 seats in the state. In 2016 Assembly elections, AIADMK – led alliance had emerged victorious on 134 seats and DMK –led coalition managed to corner 98 seats.
The magic figure is 118, the minimum seats required for a party or a coalition to stake claim for the government formation.
| PARTY-WISE PROJECTED RANGE OF SEATS | |||
| Alliance Seats: Tamil Nadu | From | To | Seats |
| UPA (DMK+Congress+Others) | 160 | to | 172 |
| NDA (AIADMK+BJP+Others) | 58 | to | 70 |
| MNM | 0 | to | 2 |
| AMMK | 0 | to | 2 |
| Others | 0 | to | 3 |
| Total | 234 | ||
| REGION-WISE PROJECTED RANGE OF SEATS | ||||||
| REGIONS | AIADMK+ | DMK+ | AMMK | |||
| Range of seats | From | To | From | To | From | To |
| Chola Nadu in Kaveri Basin | 7 | 9 | 32 | 34 | 0 | 1 |
| Greater Chennai Region | 3 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| Kongu Nadu in West | 17 | 19 | 33 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
| Pallava Nadu in North | 8 | 10 | 36 | 38 | 0 | 1 |
| Pandiya Nadu in South | 21 | 23 | 33 | 35 | 0 | 2 |
| Puddichery Region | 2 | 4 | 15 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
| Grand Total | 58 | 70 | 160 | 172 | 0 | 4 |
Tamil Nadu ABP C-Voter Exit Poll: Vote share predictions
Translated to vote share, the ABP-CVoter Exit Polls has revealed that Stalin's DMK is the first choice for people in Tamil Nadu. According to the survey data, the vote share of DMK and alliance partners will witness a jump of 7.9% from 38.8% in 2016 to 46.7% in 2021, while the vote share of AIADMK – led coalition will plummet by 8.7% from 43.7% in 2016 to 35% in 2021. Other outfits will continue to remain marginal political players in the state
| PARTY-WISE VOTE SHARE | |||
| Party Alliance | 2016 Results | 2021 Projection | Swing |
| UPA (DMK+Congress+Others) | 38.8 | 46.7 | 7.9 |
| NDA (AIADMK+BJP+Others) | 43.7 | 35 | -8.7 |
| MNM | 0 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| AMMK | 0 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| Others | 17.5 | 14.5 | -3 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 0 |
REGION-WISE VOTE SHARE | |||||
| REGIONS | AIADMK+ | DMK+ | AMMK | OTH | Total |
| Chola Nadu in Kaveri Basin | 33.1 | 51.8 | 4.3 | 10.08 | 100 |
| Greater Chennai Region | 34.7 | 40.6 | 3.8 | 20.9 | 100 |
| Kongu Nadu in West | 38.6 | 43.9 | 3.2 | 14.3 | 100 |
| Pallava Nadu in North | 31.5 | 51.6 | 2.7 | 14.2 | 100 |
| Pandiya Nadu in South | 39 | 40.4 | 4.6 | 15.7 | 100 |
| Puddichery Region | 27.9 | 50.8 | 4.3 | 17 | 100 |
| Grand Total | 35 | 46.7 | 3.8 | 14.5 | 0 |
REGION-WISE VOTE SWING: 2021 | |||||
| SWING | AIADMK+ | DMK+ | AMMK | OTH | Total |
| Chola Nadu in Kaveri Basin | -11.6 | 12.1 | 4.3 | -4.8 | 0 |
| Greater Chennai Region | -10.9 | -1.2 | 3.8 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Kongu Nadu in West | -8.2 | 7 | 3.2 | -2 | 0 |
| Pallava Nadu in North | -8.7 | 12.4 | 2.7 | -6.4 | 0 |
| Pandiya Nadu in South | -6.9 | 1.2 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Puddichery Region | -7.4 | 14.1 | 4.3 | -11 | 0 |
| Grand Total | -8.7 | 7.9 | 3.8 | -3 | 0 |
This election is an important one for Tamil Nadu as this is the first assembly poll to happen without the towering presence of titans M Karunanidhi and J Jayalalithaa. The results this time around will reveal if AIADMK can stand on its own in the absence of “Amma” and whether Karunanidhi’s son Stalin has been able to inherit the wide following of his father.
(The present opinion poll / survey was conducted by C Voter Services Pvt. Ltd. The methodology used is Computer Assisted Telephonic Interviews [CATI] for Opinion Polls and Face to face methodology for Exit Poll and the sample size for the same is 2,30,500 (sum of all opinion and exit polls in all states); the survey was carried out during the period January 1, 2021, until the end of elections in the five states. The same is also expected to have a margin of error of +/-3% at Macro level and +/-5% at Micro Level and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria / aspects and was broadly based upon answers provided by the respondents during the interviews.)