"We cannot predict time, place or exact scale, but do believe that there is a consistent seismic activity going around in the NCR region and can trigger in a major earthquake in Delhi," said Dr. Kalachand Sain, Chief of Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, an autonomous institute, run under Union Ministry of Science and Technology to IANS.
Delhi falls under high-risk seismic zones and is in zone IV which is susceptible to earthquakes of 5-6 magnitude and occasionally of 7-8 magnitude. Across the NCR there is a mushrooming growth of high-rise private buildings and most of them do not adhere to mandatory guidelines of Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) set for earthquake-resistant construction.
Delhi’s proximity to the Himalayan region also makes it very vulnerable. This region has seen earthquakes more than magnitude 7 like the 2015 earthquake in Nepal which was of magnitude 7.8.
According to a study published in the journal Nature, the 2015 earthquake instead of releasing the tension from the earth’s crust primed the surrounding areas for a bigger earthquake which could be above magnitude 8.
Studies also reveal that there is a possibility of a few major tremors in the Himalayan region which can severely affect Delhi-NCR. “Most of these earthquakes were of low magnitude measuring from 2.3 to 4.5. However, a series of such earthquakes ostensibly warn of a major earthquake to hit Delhi in the coming days. One of the reasons for increasing numbers of tremors hitting Delhi is that the local fault system here is quite active. Such fault systems around Delhi are capable of producing an earthquake of magnitude around 6 to 6.5," said Dr. A K Shukla, former Head of Earthquake Risk Evaluation Centre, Indian Metrology Department in the report.
Dr. Shukla was a part of a Seismic Hazard Microzonation Study of Delhi NCR a few years ago. It was found that the buildings constructed in the Delhi NCR are not earthquake resistant (as per norms) and may be severely damaged in case a high magnitude tremor occurs. The study also revealed that parts of South and Central Delhi are safer than areas that are located near the riverbed of Yamuna.
The study recommends an urgent modification in the existing building code. However, according to Dr. Shukla “the government has yet to implement the report which underlines the new safety measures to be taken by authorities to secure people's life and property in case a major earthquake hits the metro.”
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