New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday declared that India would ratify the Paris climate-change deal on October 2, overriding warnings against any haste from within his government in order to hand a farewell gift to outgoing US President Barack Obama.
Modi's announcement in Kozhikode, venue of a BJP national council meeting, has triggered a scramble within the foreign office and other government arms that were not keen on ratifying the agreement so soon, officials said.
Ratification of the Paris deal on Gandhi Jayanti will not instantly affect ordinary Indians.
But India will lose its biggest bargaining chip for getting the US and Europe to assist it with technology and the finances necessary for its transition to a cleaner economy that still retains its fast growth, diplomats and negotiators have contended.
India has also used this tool to pressure America to lobby for New Delhi's bid to join the 48-member Nuclear Suppliers Group. India is yet to get most of the technology and funding promised to it, or membership of the NSG.
Obama, whose term ends in January, has made it clear he sees the implementation of the Paris agreement as a key pillar of his legacy.
For implementation, the pact needs to be ratified by at least 55 countries that contribute at least 55 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions. Once that target is met, all the parties that have ratified the deal are legally bound to implement it.
Modi's declaration today is in keeping with American claims - voiced twice in the past four months - that he has committed to Obama that India would ratify the deal before the end of the year.
Indian officials have publicly and privately denied any such commitment from Modi, contending that India was not prepared for the ratification although it was not pulling back from its commitment in Paris last December to control the growth in its carbon emissions.
"I felt we were not quite ready yet in terms of the domestic actions that are required for us to ratify or at least commit to ratify within 2016," Niti Aayog vice-chairman Arvind Panagariya had said in Hangzhou, China, on the margins of the G20 summit this month. "So we plan to do it as soon as possible."
Panagariya's statement wasn't the only voice from India's policy-making circles to caution against rushing into ratification under US pressure.
The foreign office has been keen to use ratification of the Paris deal as leverage to ensure the outgoing Obama administration does not show laxity in pressing for New Delhi's admission into the NSG at a special plenary of the group, expected later this year.
India had committed, in its intended nationally determined commitments (INDCs) at the Paris meeting last December, to reduce the rate of growth of the intensity of its greenhouse gas emissions by 25 per cent by 2030.
In order to achieve this without sacrificing industrial growth, India has outlined plans to ensure that non-fossil fuels - such as the sources of nuclear, solar, wind and hydroelectric power - contribute at least 40 per cent of its total energy mix by 2030.
"Our application has acquired an immediacy in view of India's INDC envisaging 40 per cent non-fossil power generation capacity by 2030," foreign ministry spokesperson Vikas Swarup had said in June after the NSG deferred India's application for membership following objections from China. "An early positive decision by the NSG would have allowed us to move forward on the Paris agreement."
Foreign minister Sushma Swaraj too drew this link at her meeting with US secretary of state John Kerry during the recent annual strategic and commercial dialogue in New Delhi.
The environment ministry has repeatedly used the carrot of India's ratification of the Paris agreement to press the US and European nations to deliver on their commitments to help New Delhi finance the transition to a greener economy.
The argument is simple: India can pressure the West to fulfil its commitments and assist New Delhi only as long as it avoids ratifying the Paris deal.
After the ratification, and once the Paris agreement comes into effect, India is obliged under international law to fulfil its commitments whether or not the West shares technology and money, and whether or not Washington leans on the NSG for New Delhi.
Over the past four months, Indian officials said, the pressure from the US to ratify the deal has increased significantly.
On at least two occasions, US officials have insisted that Modi had made personal commitments to Obama that India would ratify the agreement this year.
"They are working through that process to complete it before the end of the year," White House press secretary Josh Earnest said, briefing reporters after an Obama-Modi meeting in Washington in June.
But foreign secretary S. Jaishankar rejected Earnest's statement days later, arguing that India would need to amend a raft of laws - from the Motor Vehicles Act to electricity regulations -before it can implement its Paris commitments in full.
"These are hugely complicated issues," Jaishankar had said. "There are cascading implications for very different segments of the economy, so I think all these really need to be considered. It is likely that developed countries are able to address these cascading issues faster. In our case, these are likely to take longer."
When Modi and Obama met earlier this month, during the East Asia Summit in Laos, the White House again claimed that Modi had committed to Obama that India would ratify the Paris agreement this year.
Asked about the claim, a top Indian diplomat who was in the room with Obama and Modi at the time said the White House spokesperson had "misspoken".
For Obama, getting Modi on board is crucial. Till now, 60 countries have ratified the Paris deal - more than the 55 needed - but they together contribute only 47.76 per cent of global emissions. Another handful have committed to ratifying the agreement this year.
India, the world's fourth-largest polluter which contributes over 6 per cent of global emissions, can help clinch the 55 per cent target needed for the deal to become operational this year.
Obama and Modi have struck a personal friendship that has enabled them to refer to each other by their first names. Earlier this year, Obama invited and received Modi in Washington among world leaders he considers closest to him.