The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated the possible formation of a low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal around November 23, based on the weather update issued at 8:30 AM IST on November 19. An upper air cyclonic circulation is expected to develop over the South Andaman Sea and nearby regions by November 21. This system is forecasted to move west-northwestwards, leading to the development of a low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal two days later.
Further intensification is anticipated, with the system likely strengthening into a depression over the southwest Bay of Bengal during the following 48 hours.
The Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC) has forecast heavy rainfall in 10 districts of Tamil Nadu on Tuesday prompting the Nagapattinam District Collector to declare a holiday for all schools in the district. In Thanjavur, school heads have been given discretion to decide on closures based on local conditions.
Heavy rains are expected in the following districts: Nagapattinam, Thiruvarur, Thanjavur, Mayiladuthurai, Pudukottai, Sivaganga, Thoothukudi, Ramanathapuram, Tirunelveli and Kanyakumari. Additionally, starting November 22, heavy rainfall is expected in Chennai and the northern coastal districts of Tiruvallur, Chengalpattu, and Kancheepuram.
These districts are predicted to receive above-normal rainfall until November 28, while the rest of the state is likely to experience normal to below-normal rainfall during this period.
Northeast Monsoon Update
From October 1 to November 15, Tamil Nadu recorded 276 mm of rainfall during the ongoing Northeast Monsoon. Coimbatore received the highest rainfall, with 418 mm, marking a 67% increase above normal levels. While 17 districts, including Chennai, recorded excess rainfall, others registered a deficit.
Heavy rains have led to a significant drop in electricity consumption across the state. The Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Company (Tangedco) reported a daily power consumption decline to 302 million units from the peak of over 400 million units per day in September. The decrease is attributed to reduced use of air conditioning and lower agricultural electricity demand.
The state health department has raised alarms about the increasing prevalence of viral diseases amid the rains. Fever, influenza, malaria, and leptospirosis cases have surged in Chennai and nearby districts such as Kancheepuram, Chengalpattu, and Tiruvallur.
The Tamil Nadu Public Health Department has urged residents to take precautions, especially with children, advising vigilance for symptoms like high fever, chills, cough, sore throat, and headaches. Seeking immediate medical attention is recommended to manage and prevent further outbreaks.