Opinion Poll conducted in the State finds the ruling BJP, which has been in power in Gujarat for the last two decades, to be way, way ahead of the Congress at the current moment.
BJP seems to gain over last assembly elections held in 2012 under the leadership of then Chief Minister Narendra Modi. Like in other parts of India, Congress is losing out base in Gujarat too.
Gujarat assembly has a strength of 182 members.
According to the opinion poll, the upcoming election of Gujarat appears like a ‘no-contest’ with the BJP leading its arch-rival by over thirty percentage points in terms of people’s voting intention.
59 per cent respondents said that they would vote for the BJP if state elections were to take place now. Only 29% were found to be rooting for the Congress. This means that the BJP has thus far managed to retain the level of support it received in the 2014 Lok Sabha election and the Congress has slid down further.
Gujarat voters’ voting intention if assembly elections are held now (August 2017)
According to the poll BJP’s sweep is witnessed all over Gujarat and in all regions of the state. Best performance is in Saurashtra and Kutch regions where BJP is expected to get 65 percent votes.
Gujarat voters’ voting intention if assembly elections are held now (August 2017) Region wise vote
There seems to be no major challenger against Vijay Rupani for the position of chief minister within or outside the BJP. He leads the chief ministerial race by a wide margin as 24 per cent of the voters said they would like to see Rupani back at the helm. 7 per cent respondents want to see prime minister Narendra Modi to come back to Gujarat and rule the state. 2 per cent voters positioned themselves in the favor of BJP national president Amit Shah. 43 per cent did not take any name when asked about their favorite for chief ministerial post.
What seems to be working in the BJP’s favour the most is its decision to replace Anandiben Patel with Vijay Rupani as the chief minister a year ago. When asked whose performance as chief minister had been better among the two, twice as many chose Rupani’s term as they did Patel’s term (34% to 17%). This perhaps means that any anti-incumbency sentiment that might have existed against Patel’s government may now have weakened with Rupani as the State’s leader.
Spontaneous Chief Minister Preference -Vijay Rupani way ahead of others right now; 43% took no name
The survey found a sentiment of pro-incumbency to be prevailing in Gujarat as of now. In Kutch and Saurashtra about 54 per cent feel the present BJP government should continue.
Pro-incumbency sentiment across all regions at present; strongest in Saurashtra
Contrary to popular analysis, the recent agitation by some Patel leaders demanding OBC status does not seem to have greatly negatively impacted the BJP’s popularity among its staunchest voters, the Patels, with nearly three in every four voters belonging to the dominant community still supporting the party. Other than holding on to its core voters, the BJP seems to have also made some serious inroads among the old voting bloc of the Congress - Kshatriyas, Dalits, Tribals and Muslims - politically known as KHAM.
While the Kshatriya drift away from the Congress has been going on since the mid-1990s, what is stunning are the BJP’s gains among Dalits, Tribals and Muslims. The Una Dalit flogging incident does not seem to have resulted in a consolidation of Dalits behind the Congress. On the contrary, the party’s traditionally high lead over the BJP among Dalits has narrowed considerably
Voting intentions of castes and communities at the moment - BJP consolidates base and makes gains
About 70 percent of the voters said they were satisfied with the performance of the State BJP government during the last five years.
Satisfaction with BJP-led State govt.
According to the survey, Prime Minister Modi’s already high popularity in the State has grown further over the last four years. In the state he ruled for three terms, he is the most liked leader at 82 per cent, followed by with ruling CM Rupani at 73 per cent. While the star of Patidar andolan, Hardik Patel happens to be the most disliked at 46 per cent.
Modi most liked leader followed by Rupani, Many haven’t heard of Solanki, Hardik Patel disliked by most
As per the survey, 20 per cent of the Congress voters sympathizes with Vaghela and 46 per cent refused to take a position on the Vaghela issue. Whereas 34 per cent voters of Congress feel that he betrayed the party just before the polls.
Voters on Vaghela regarding his exit, if it was Congress that disrespected him or he betrayed
According to the survey, most voters were found to be highly supportive of both demonetization and the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), and also quite satisfied with the way they were implemented.
Plurality supports demonetization and GST; but support for GST is much lower than for demonetization
