A survey conducted by C-Voter has found that BJP may emerge as the single largest party in the elections but would find it difficult to touch the finish line (magic figure of 41 seats). According to the pre-poll survey, BJP is likely to win 28-38 seats in the 81-member Assembly. Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) is tipped to bag seats between 18- 28, while Congress may win seats anywhere between 4-10. The All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU) is projected to win 3-9 seats while Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) is also pegged to snap up in a similar range. Other parties in fray may also secure 3-9 seats.
The opinion poll has suggested BJP may clock 33.3% vote share while JMM may get 18%. Congress is projected to get 12.4 % of the votes. AJSU 4.6%, JVM predicted to get 7.7%. Others may gather one fourth of the total vote share. (If there are suitable alliances of all major parties)
The recent outcome in Maharashtra will set the alarm bells ringing for the BJP as it has partnered with AJSU Party during all coalition governments in Jharkhand since 2000. Several rounds of talks between both the parties have been foundered at different levels. It remains to be seen if both the parties cobble up an alliance again if the BJP falls short of numbers.
Let’s look at some other findings of the survey:
- The biggest issue continues to remain unemployment and business opportunities.
- 5% of the respondents are disappointed with the inadequate water supply
- 26% find the BJP-led government responsible for the issues in the state but at the same time 36.7% feel it’s only the BJP that can solve them.
- 7% of the respondents want the current state government replaced but 52% of them also believe that the BJP will return to power in the state.
- A majority (53.4) of the respondents want to see a different CM in the state.
- An overwhelming majority of nearly 75% of respondents seem pleased with PM Narendra Modi’s achievements and the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre.
- Raghubar Das has been chosen as the best CM by 28% of the respondents. Hemant Soren (JMM) and Babulal Marandi (JVM) enjoy support of 22% of the respondents.
What happened in 2014 polls?
In 2014 elections, the BJP emerged as the single largest party with 37 seats and its ally AJSU contributed 5 seats to their combined tally of 42. The figure was enough for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to cross the majority mark of 41. The JMM bagged 19 seats, while JVM won eight seats. The Congress on the other hand bagged six seats.
Opposition parties determined to oust BJP
Opposition coalition's chief ministerial candidate Hemant Soren who is leading the alliance comprising the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). According to their seat-sharing agreement, the JMM will pit its candidates in 43 seats, Congress 31 and RJD in seven constituencies.
Jharkhand has a large tribal population. An alliance of Opposition parties is making a determined bid to oust and defenestrate the BJP government.
On the other hand, the NDA allies — the BJP and the AJSU party which had allied in 2019 general elections — will clash in 15 of the total 81 Assembly seats. The AJSU Party is headed by Sudesh Mahto.
Five phased polling in Jharkhand, counting on December 23
The five-phase polls will be held from November 30 and December 20, and the results will be declared on December 23.
The first phase of the polls will take place November 30 in which 13 constituencies will vote. The second phase will be held on December 7 in which 20 constituencies will go to polls. Seventeen constituencies are scheduled to vote on December 12 in the third phase. The polling for the fourth phase, which comprises of 15 constituencies, will be held on December 16. The fifth and the final phase where 16 constituencies will go to polls will take place on December 20.
Jharkhand has an 81-member Assembly, which expires on January 5, 2020.
Raghubar Das is the first state chief minister to have completed the full term of five years in the state.
The BJP has asserted that it has provided a stable, clean and development-oriented government in Jharkhand, with the Opposition claiming that the state's progress has stalled under its rule.
(The C-Voter survey was conducted in the month of November, 2019 and the sample size achieved was 8,923)