If Lok Sabha 2019 elections taught us anything it was that the BJP has surged in states where it was not pegged as the real contender. Keeping that in mind, West Bengal's Assembly Election becomes all the more important, as in 2019 Lok Sabha elections BJP's voting percentage swelled to around 40%, threatening the regional ruling party TMC.
In order to decode all the patterns, ABP in partnership with CNX conducted a survey to understand the people's nerves ahead of the West Bengal Assembly Elections.
One being asked which political party or candidate will the respondents vote for in the coming Assembly Election, people reposed their faith in the ruling TMC. As per the survey, BJP has seen a 26% surge in their voter base when compared to the 2016 West Bengal Assembly Elections.
| Options | ABP-CNX Survey Results |
| TMC | 41.09 |
| BJP | 36.64 |
| Left-INC Alliance | 17.14 |
| AIMIM | 01.15 |
| Others | 03.98 |
| Total % | 100 |
In terms of seats, TMC is again ahead of the BJP, which is to be believed as the main rival for the incumbent government. As per ABP-CNX Survey, TMC will be bagging 151 seats (given +/- of 5 seats) and BJP will be finishing second with 117 seats (given +/- of 5 seats) while Left and Congress alliance will be able to secure 24 seats and others taking 2 seats.
With a section of the Trinamool Congress (TMC) leaders pitching for an alliance with the Congress and Left to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the upcoming West Bengal Assembly polls, the CNX-ABP survey revealed that this may put Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee-led party in an extremely good commanding position.
The TMC-led alliance may be able to bag around 220 seats. The alliance may gain either five seats more or less in the upcoming assembly polls scheduled in April-May, the survey adds.
The survey also points out the BJP may win around 72 seats with the addition or deduction of five seats in case it locks horns with the TMC-led alliance. The others may bag just two seats out of the total 294 seats up for grabs.
There has also been a change in position since June 2020, as per the CNX-ABP survey even if the TMC decides to enter the electoral contest solo. The TMC, which had 159 seats in its kitty in June 2020, suffered a loss of eight seats by February 2021.
The February 2021 survey put the BJP in an advantageous position with a lead of 16 seats at 117. The June 2020 survey predicted the saffron party’s dominance in just 101 seats.
The Left-Congress alliance also suffered a loss of two seats. The alliance, which was in a commanding position in 26 seats in June 2020, maintained its lead in just 24 seats till February 2021.