Kerala ABP C-Voter Exit Poll 2021: Pinarayi Vijayan-Led LDF To Make History, BJP Fails To Impress

Kerala ABP C-Voter Exit Poll 2021: In the three-cornered fight between LDF, UDF, and the BJP, the ruling LDF is likely to return to power for the second consecutive time.

Kerala ABP C-Voter Exit Poll 2021: After weeks of massive campaigning, mega rallies, and power-packed roadshows in Kerala, the state went to the polls on April 6 to elect its 15th legislative assembly. Voters in large numbers queued up to decide the fate of 140 assembly seats. According to Election Commission data, the total voters of the state include 1,32,83,724 male, 1,41,62,025 female and 290 transgender voters.

For 4 decades, voters have denied parties a second consecutive term in Kerala. Hence, Congress-led UDF is upbeat about its chances of gaining power this time and Former Congress President Rahul Gandhi was seen extensively campaigning in the state.

But the LDF government has also maintained its edge especially with its handling of the Coronavirus spread within the state, employing its well-developed healthcare system. So if the CM Pinarayi Vijayan government retains its power, it will also be creating a record of sorts in the process.

While usually, the real contest is between LDF and UDF, this time around the BJP also tried to put up a strong fight by inducting 'Metro Man' E Sreedharan. The entry of women in Sabarimala Temple and the Beef ban controversy remained as some of the most discussed topics besides the Covid situation in the state.

Will Celebrated engineer E Sreedharan help the saffron party gain ground in Kerala? Will the pre-existing power trends help Congress-led UDF witness victory in the state or is the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF government going to retain power?

To get an insight, ABP in partnership with C-Voter conducted an exit poll to understand who are the winners and losers in the state.

ABP-C-Voter Kerala Exit Poll 2021 - Seat Range

According to ABP C-Voter Exit Poll 2021, the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) will return to power in Kerala. In the 140-member assembly, the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF government may win with a simple majority in the Kerala Polls 2021, by capturing somewhere between 71-77 seats (the magic number being 71).

Meanwhile, Congress-led UDF is projected to win 62-68 seats of the 140 seats - higher than its 2016 tally when it won 47 seats. The survey suggests that BJP might fail to make an impact in the state as it finishes third with chances of securing 0-2 seats.

"In Kerala, it's a straight-forward electoral battle between the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). According to the exit poll, the ruling LDF expected to retain the southern state of Kerala and thus buck the trend of defeating the incumbent every electoral cycle," C-Voter's states about the projection.

ABP-C-Voter Kerala Exit Poll 2021 - Vote Share Percentage

As per the survey, LDF is projected to have a 42.8% voter share, UDF will secure 41.4% and BJP will receive around 13.7%. 

Kerala	Party Alliance: Votes
Alliance Votes: Kerala	2016 Results	2021 Projection	Swing
LDF	43.5	42.8	-0.7
UDF	38.8	41.4	2.6
BJP	14.9	13.7	-1.2
Others	2.8	2.1	-0.7
Total	100	100	0

This projection reveals that compared to the 2016 Kerala Assembly Election result, LDF and BJP are likely to see a decline of 0.7% and 1.2%, respectively. So while UDF may not secure a majority in terms of number of seats, it will nevertheless see a significant gain of 2.6% in its vote base.

"According to exit poll data, the ruling LDF is projected to secure 42.8% of votes polled in the state. UDF is expected get 41.4% vote share and NDA is likely to get 13.7% votes. In 2016 Assembly polls, LDF had got 43.5% vote share, hence the ruling alliance is likely to witness a marginal dip of 0.7% in its vote share this time. UDF had secured 38.8% votes in 2016, thus a swing of 2.6% votes is likely to take place in its favour this time. NDA had 14.9% votes in 2016, thus the vote share of the coalition is likely to plummet by 1.7%," C-Voter's statement reads.

"Translated into seats, the survey data shows that the Left alliance is expected to win 71 to 77 seats in the state having a total of 140 Assembly constituencies. The main opponent - UDF is likely to secure 62 to 68 seats, while the NDA will continue to remain a marginal player in the southern state as the alliance is projected to win 0 to 2 seat," it adds.

Notably, in the 2016 assembly elections, LDF won 91 seats, while the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) won 47 seats. In order to form a government, a party needs 71 seats to prove the majority.

It will be interesting to see whether the BJP will be able to do better than what is predicted in the exit poll. It may have made some inroads in the state but will be now important to see whether it actually emerges as a strong opposition or will spring a surprise by forming the government. The counting of votes for the Kerala assembly election will be held on May 2.

"We Will Get More Seats Than Last Time," Says Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan

Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan said that he does not need the exit polls results as he is sure what the result of the assembly election is going to be.

"I did say before and recently, that we are going to win and win with more number of seats than in 2016. I have no doubt about it," he said in response to a question on the exit polls, news agency IANS reported.

When asked what makes him confident about victory over UDF, he replied: "My confidence is I know the people of Kerala well". "If there are others who are also confident, all I would say is, let them be...." he added.

Vijayan was interacting with the media as part of his daily routine of giving out the Covid figures for the day.

The Chief Minister's confidence indicates that he thinks the CPI-M-led Left Democratic Front is going to get more than 91 seats, while Congress has dismissed it as the party believes that UDF is all set to form the government, by winning a minimum of 75 seats.

(The present opinion poll/survey was conducted by C Voter Services Pvt. Ltd. The methodology used is Computer Assisted Telephonic Interviews [CATI] for Opinion Polls and Face to face methodology for Exit Poll and the sample size for the same is 2,30,500 (sum of all opinion and exit polls in all states) & the survey was carried out during the period January 1, 2021, until the end of elections in the five states. The same is also expected to have a margin of error of +/-3% at Macro level and +/-5% at Micro Level and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria/aspects and was broadly based upon answers provided by the respondents during the interviews.)