US, Australia, Japan Forming New Quad With Philippines. Should India Be Concerned?

Last week, in not so much of a sudden move, the US, Japan and Australia held their first round of quadrilateral defence talks with the Philippines in a more pronounced opposition against China as India kept watching.

New Delhi: India kept watching last week as its Quad partners – the US, Japan and Australia – tightly held the hands of The Philippines and gave shape to a Quad 2.0 of sorts in order to stand up to China by aligning their armies together under the Indo-Pacific framework, particularly focussing on the South China Sea. US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, who was on a weeklong visit to the Indo-Pacific region, clearly outlined the Joe Biden administration’s military plans in Asia while pointing out China as the main challenge.

  

To that effect, Austin met Japanese Defence Minister Yasukazu Hamada, Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles and Carlito Galvez, the Defence Minister of The Philippines, in Singapore last week to hold the first-ever in-person meeting of this grouping. 

According to Secretary Austin, the meeting was held “to discuss opportunities to expand cooperation across our four nations, including in the South China Sea”. “We are united in our shared vision for advancing a free and open Indo-Pacific,” he said. 

The meeting, which took place on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last week, was also the first-ever defence ministerial-level meeting of these four countries. 

India, which is part of the Quad along with the US, Australia and Japan, sees “no cause of concern” with the formation of this new group as it believes the priorities of both the groupings are “different” even though it feeds into the larger vision of “free and open Indo-Pacific”, according to diplomatic sources.

The sources said the new grouping has a more military dimension to it and will remain focussed on issues pertaining to the South China Sea where China has been increasing its military adventurism, whereas the Quad is focussed on humanitarian and disaster relief challenges. 

‘Two Separate Initiatives Can Coexist’

Both Japan and The Philippines have been facing challenges with Beijing over its claim on the Senkaku Islands and the East China Sea and part of the South China Sea. 

Derek Grossman, Senior Defence Analyst at the US-based RAND Corporation, said: “I don’t think the new defence arrangement is a threat to India’s position in the original Quad whatsoever. These are two separate initiatives that can easily coexist.”  

He said the new Quad is “more directly aimed at countering China”. 

“It will likely do so explicitly unlike the original version, and India is probably glad to be on the outside given its cautious approach toward China than the other three Quad members Australia, Japan, and US,” he added. 

Addressing the Shangri-La Dialogue, Philippines’ Galvez stated that his country is “not alone” in facing China at the South-China Sea.  

Jagannath Panda, Head, of Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs at the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Sweden, said India's strategic significance will be “unaffected” since all the major Indo-Pacific powers need New Delhi’s cooperation on geopolitics to geo-economic issues. 

“The American security mandate very much believes in making closer alignments outside the alliance framework. The latest Quad — the US, Australia, Japan, and the Philippines — echoes that spirit, strengthening the US-led architecture in the Indo-Pacific,” he said. 

Panda added: “Neither the latest Quad — the US, Australia, Japan, and the Philippines — will act as a balancer to the existing Quad (the US, Japan, India, and Australia), nor will it downsize the significance of it.” 

He, however, said the new Quad makes India's strategic choice a “little defensive”.  

“The US and its alliance partners such as Japan and Australia want to ensure that their security requirements are met in the region, and India must have a non-ambivalent position in the Indo-Pacific. The Philippines-associated Quad will create pressure on India to that extent to respond to various challenges, but that does not necessarily reduce the significance of India as a critical Indo-Pacific power,” he highlighted. 

Indo-Pacific Is US Military's No. 1 Area Of Focus: Lloyd Austin

Without mincing his words at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Secretary Austin clearly stated that the Indo-Pacific is the US military's No. 1 area of focus, in which the main target is China. 

As a result, apart from the new quadrilateral defence grouping, the US also sought to separately strengthen the interoperability of the armed forces of the US and the Philippines and allow America to respond more seamlessly to shared challenges in the Indo-Pacific region, the Pentagon said in a statement.  

It also mentioned that the US and the Philippines will coordinate closely in defence modernisation by signing a Security Sector Assistance Roadmap, which will identify investments in “priority defense platforms and force packages over the next five to 10 years that will bolster combined deterrence and capacity to resist coercion”.

India, according to the sources quoted above, believes this will complement New Delhi’s growing defence ties with Manila while the new quadrilateral defence partnership will push the Philippines to procure more arms from it.  

In 2022, New Delhi signed a $375 million deal with Manila to sell the shore-based anti-ship variant of the BrahMos supersonic missile, which is produced under a joint collaboration between India and Russia.  

New Delhi also believes that the new quadrilateral setup also upholds the ASEAN centrality of the Indo-Pacific strategic framework, the sources said. 

“The original Quad was actually envisioned by former and late Japanese PM (Shinzo) Abe to assist the region with humanitarian and disaster relief challenges as well as China. He wanted the focus to be on China, but it took a while to get there. Now it is, but lots of other challenges still are in the background, and India uses this side of cooperation as cover,” said Grossman.  

Panda maintained that the new Quad involving the Philippines is “more maritime-centric, aimed at strengthening the South China Sea and East China Sea security umbrella in the region”.  

“Bringing the Philippines and Japan together under one umbrella with Australia only facilitates and strengthens American Indo-Pacific planning, be it maritime or militaristic, in the South China Sea region,” he added.