When the spotlight was on the combined Opposition as it went about putting together the building blocks for a grand alliance against the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) at the Centre, with an eye on the Lok Sabha elections next year, the saffron party wasn’t sitting on its hands.
Away from the media glare, the BJP discreetly set about shoring up the NDA — bringing in new partners while ushering back some old ones who had left.
Amid the Opposition’s sound and fury in both Houses of Parliament over the report by US short-seller Hindenburg Research against the Adani Group, during the truncated Budget Session earlier this year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as was reported widely in the media, had fired back a one-line retort at the Rajya Sabha — “Desh dekh raha hain, ek akela kitno ko bhari padh raha hain (The country is watching how one man was weighing heavy over so many).”
While PM Modi has since taken similar potshots at the Opposition, pitting himself against “the conclave of the corrupt”, as he termed the inaugural combined Opposition meeting in Patna, the BJP worked quietly on bringing small, like-minded parties on its side ahead of next year’s Lok Sabha polls.
And days before the second Opposition unity meeting in Bengaluru, BJP national president JP Nadda addressed a press conference, saying that as many as 38 parties had enlisted their participation at the NDA meeting, which was presided over by PM Modi.
Significantly, the NDA meeting in the national capital was scheduled on the same day, July 18, when 26 Opposition parties went into a huddle in Congress-ruled Karnataka.
Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM Links Lot With NDA
The efforts to revive and revitalise the NDA saw the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) joining the ruling coalition last month.
Founded by Jitan Ram Manjhi, who served Bihar as its first ‘Mahadalit’ chief minister, the HAM(S) linked its lot with the NDA after pulling the plug on the ruling alliance in the state.
As reported by Hindustan Times, a formal announcement of the tie-up was made after the founder-leader of HAM(S), along with party president Santosh Kumar Suman, met Union Home Minister Amit Shah at the latter’s New Delhi residence.
HT quoted Suman as telling reporters after the meeting with Shah, “In principle, we are with the NDA from today.”
He added that the modalities for seat sharing for the Lok Sabha polls would be discussed at a later date.
On breaking ranks with the ruling alliance led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, the party leaders said they were not in favour of merging HAM(S) with the Janata Dal (United), reported Hindustan Times.
SBSP Chief OP Rajbhar Returns To NDA
Formerly a minister in Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government in Uttar Pradesh, in its previous term, the founder-leader of the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) returned to the saffron fold earlier this month.
According to a report, the SBSP, which claims to have significant influence over Other Backward Caste (OBC) voters in eastern Uttar Pradesh, announced that it will ally with the BJP in the next general elections in the interest of “social justice, the country’s security and the empowerment of those deprived of good governance”.
Rajbhar, who contested the previous UP Assembly elections in alliance with the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP), shared a picture with Union Home Minister Amit Shah in a tweet, thanking him, PM Modi and UP CM Yogi Adityanath for facilitating his return to the NDA.
To a question on his previous statement that he would fight the next Lok Sabha polls with the SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party if they came together, Rajbhar was quoted as saying in a report that he tried talking to all parties but did not get any response.
With the SBSP now back in its fold, the NDA will set sights on the OBC vote bank in eastern UP in the next general elections.
Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas) Joins NDA
Responding positively to a letter by BJP national president Nadda, asking Chirag Paswan, who heads the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), to attend the NDA meeting in the national capital, the latter not only enlisted his participation at the July 18 huddle but also made his return to the ruling alliance at the Centre official earlier this month.
A report quoted the LJP (Ram Vilas) chief as telling reporters, “We have taken a formal decision to join the NDA because LJP (Ram Vilas) and the BJP are natural allies.”
Further, according to the report, the formal announcement of the Chirag Paswan faction of the LJP returning to the NDA came after he struck a deal with the BJP to contest six seats in the next general elections.
When Amit Shah Urged Apna Dal To Make Modi PM Again
Addressing an event organised to mark the 74th birth anniversary of the founder of Apna Dal, Sonelal Patel, Amit Shah urged the BJP ally to enable PM Modi return to the country’s highest post in 2024.
Seeking to underline the significance of the BJP’s alliance with Apna Dal, the Union Home Minister said the two parties fought and won four elections together in Uttar Pradesh.
Significantly, Anupriya Patel, the daughter of the Apna Dal founder, is currently a Union Minister.
Expectedly, the Apna Dal was a key participant at the July 18 NDA meeting.
When The NDA Lost Its Oldest Ally, SAD
At the height of the farm protests against the Centre’s three Bills for agricultural reform in 2020, the BJP-led NDA was dealt a body blow after its oldest ally, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), uncoupled itself from the ruling combine claiming it ignored the farmers’ sentiments.
Close on the heels of the resignation of Harsimrat Kaur, a former Union minister, SAD chief Sukhbir Badal announced that his party had decided to part ways with the NDA over differences on the farm reform Bills.
While the SAD continues to stay out of the NDA, with the BJP, according to a report, ruling out any overtures to pave the way for its return to the ruling coalition, the Sukhbir Badal-led party, curiously, hasn’t declared support for the fledgeling Opposition alliance — I.N.D.I.A. ( Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance).
Does The BJP Need Allies In 2024?
Even as the BJP shored up the NDA with the return of old partners and by bringing in new allies, a question does arise on whether, at all, it needs to tie up with small, regional forces to give itself the best shot at winning the 2024 elections.
According to a report in the Economic Times, citing a recent survey by Morning Consult, PM Modi dwarfed all other world leaders in popularity stakes with a 76 percent approval rating.
Even his roadshows ahead of the Gujarat Assembly polls and, more recently, in Karnataka, saw thousands thronging the streets, chanting his name and showering petals as PM Modi waved back, acknowledging the affection that came his way.
During his maiden state visit to the US, PM Modi was received warmly by members of the Indian diaspora, which was consistent with his current standing as the most popular global leader.
He was treated to a similar civic reception during his visit to Egypt, which followed his official jaunt to the US.
It might appear that PM Modi’s global goodwill and continuing public support both within the four corners of India and beyond puts the BJP at decisive advantage over its rivals, going into next year’s Lok Sabha polls.
However, elections are not fought and won on the popularity of a single leader alone as balancing social equations also plays a vital role in determining the outcome.
And, this is precisely where the regional forces, which, though small in terms of their spheres of influence, hold sway over their respective vote banks, making them ideal political suitors for the likes of the BJP.
Are The NDA Partners Winnable?
Size alone doesn’t always determine the winnablity of a party or its candidates. While they may fall short on many counts when compared to the likes of the Congress, DMK, Aam Aadmi Party and the Trinamool Congress, regional forces such as the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), HAM or the Apna Dal wield significant electoral clout over the section of voters that they represent or identify themselves with.
Seen in this context, the BJP’s outreach to these small yet influential regional players could well be the key to deciding the battle for the Lok Sabha next year.
Alliances Done, Battle Begins
Even as the resurgent NDA and the newly formed Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A) of the Opposition could draw their battle lines, a video from Manipur came to light, showing two women being groped, molested and paraded naked in the violence-hit state.
With the Parliament about to reconvene for the Monsoon Session, the united Opposition sensed a chance to corner the Centre over the Manipur situation. As the Parliament went into session on July 20, the Opposition members raised a chorus for a discussion on Manipur and a statement from PM Modi.
With Opposition raising a ruckus in both Houses, reiterating the demand that all listed businesses be set aside for a discussion on Manipur, and the Centre refusing to blink, the showdown moved to a no-confidence vote.
A motion for a no-confidence vote against the Centre was tabled in Lok Sabha on Wednesday by Congress MP Gaurav Gogoi and accepted by Speaker Om Birla after a brief discussion.
With a brute majority in the Lower House, the BJP is expected to survive the motion of confidence, should it come to a vote.
However, the Opposition insists that the fight isn't about numbers but for Manipur.