EXPLAINED: How Nepal Elects Its President And Why March 9 Election Could Change The Power Equation Once Again

Rivals to allies to 'estranged partners' — that's the status of PM Prachanda and CPN(UML) chairman KPS Oli relations after the former extended support to Nepali Congress's presidential candidate, sidelining Oli's pick.

Nepal is going to elect its next president on March 9. Senior Nepali Congress leader Ram Chandra Poudel and Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) candidate Subas Nembang filed their nominations on Saturday. Coming two months after a seven-party coalition forming the government, the election is being keenly watched as the developments in its run-up have already sent signals of another political turmoil in the Himalayan nation.

   

Eight political parties are endorsing Poudel, who now looks set to get the top post, succeeding incumbent Bidya Devi Bhandari. These eight parties include the CPN-Maoist Centre of Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’. By supporting Poudel, Prachanda ignored coalition partner KP Sharma Oli's nominee, and the latter is reported to have called this a “breach” of their understanding.

This presidential election may once again change the power equation in Nepal, putting the future of the seven-party ruling alliance in jeopardy. 

Saturday was the last date for filing nominations, and that for withdrawal of candidature was February 26. Any complaints against the candidates should be filed until Monday. The candidates can campaign from March 1 to March 8. Voting will be on March 9, and the verdict will be out the same day. Whoever wins will be the third president of Nepal, which traditionally had a monarchy when the king served as the head of state. 

The Presidential System In Nepal 

In the Himalayan nation, which had become a constitutional monarchy by 1990, the presidential system is only a decade and a half old. The country got its first president in 2008, two years after the historic People’s Movement got the mandate to restore democracy. 

The elected Constituent Assembly adopted the Interim Constitution in 2007, removing all powers of the king. Dr Ram Baran Yadav became the Republic of Nepal’s first president as the Constituent Assembly, serving concurrently as Parliament, formally abolished the 247 years system of monarchy on May 28, 2008.

Bidya Devi Bhandari, who succeeded Yadav, was the first President elected by Nepal’s Parliament with its Constitution promulgated in 2015. After the completion of her first term, she was re-elected in 2018.

According to the Constitution, the president is the head of the state. 

How Nepal Elects Its President

The presidential election in Nepal is based on a weighted system of voting. 

The country’s Constitution says an electoral college comprising members of the federal parliament and the seven provincial assemblies shall elect the president. The weightage of votes of the two sets of lawmakers is different “as provided for in the federal law”.  

The electoral college is made up of 884 members — 275 members of the House of Representatives, 59 members of the National Assembly and 550 members of the seven provincial assemblies. 

If no seat is vacant in the federal parliament and the provincial assemblies, the electoral college will have a total weightage of 52,786 votes, requiring a candidate to get a majority of the total votes to win the election.

According to a report in The Kathmandu Post, as many as 881 members will cast their vote in the March 9 election, if no one abstains from voting. 

The eight parties who are backing Poudel together have a total weightage of 31,711 votes, the report said. The number is enough for the Nepal Congress candidate to secure a win. The UML has a weightage of 15,281 votes, according to the report, which also said no party has so far pledged support to the party and hence chances appear bleak for Nembang.

The president’s term will be five years from the date of election. An individual can be elected for the post only for two terms. The tenure of Bidya Devi Bhandari ends on March 12.

Why This Presidential Election Threatens Another Political Turmoil In Nepal  

With eight parties in his support, Nepali Congress’s Poudel will most likely be the next president, but this development threatens to bring down the fragile seven-party alliance government that was formed only two months ago.

The eight parties include Nepali Congress, CPN-Maoist Centre, CPN-Unified Socialist, Rastriya Janata Party, Lokatantrik Samajbadi Party, Rastriya Janamorcha, Nagarik Unmukti Party and Janamat Party. According to reports, the decision to vote for Poudel was taken at a joint meeting held at the residence of Prachanda Friday evening.

Poudel’s candidacy was proposed and seconded by key leaders of the eight parties.

Nembang’s candidacy was proposed by CPN(UML) chairman KPS Oli.

It was only in December 2022 that Nepal’s two big Communist parties — the CPN(UML) and the Maoist Centre — joined hands to form a coalition government along with five other parties.

Prachanda's party had contested the November 20 elections as a partner of the five-party alliance led by the Nepali Congress. It, however, left the alliance on December 25 after the NC refused to give Prachanda the PM post, or that of president.

Prachanda then struck an alliance with the CPN-UML to form the government. The Nepali Congress became the main opposition party. 

The Maoist Centre’s decision to now support a presidential candidate from outside the ruling alliance has not gone down well with the UML.  

Prachanda has yet to come out with a statement citing the reason for his decision, which has now put a serious question mark on the future of the alliance government.

The Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), which was part of the coalition, has already pulled out of the Cabinet and announced withdrawal of support to the Prachanda government, with its four ministers, including Deputy PM Rajendra Lingden, handing over their resignation.

Alliance partner National Democratic Party also announced Saturday that it would withdraw from the government over Prachanda’s presidential candidate choice, though it is yet to officially pull out.

Prachanda may now have to seek a vote of confidence in the House of Representatives, which is the lower house of Parliament, within a month.

With no party succeeding in providing a stable government, Nepal has seen political turmoil for years now.

While the UML is still part of the government, Oli is reported to have said Prachanda breached the understanding that was struck between them when they formed the coalition government on December 26. According to a report in the MyRepublica newspaper, however, Oli claimed that Prachanda told him he was under pressure to support Poudel.

Nepalease media reported on Monday that a new ruling coalition, minus the UML, was in the making.

A PTI report said Oli claimed that when they backed Prachanda for the PM post last year, it was agreed upon that the President post would go to a UML member.

The "understanding" reportedly changed after the Nepali Congress, the largest party with 89 seats, voted for Prachanda during the trust vote on January 10. The PM then called for electing the president based on a national consensus, which Oli had rejected outright, the Kathmandu Post reported.

Amid threat to his government, Prachanda has cancelled his Qatar trip, which was going to be his first foreign visit after becoming the PM. He cited some "important political engagements" at home ahead of the presidential election, according to another PTI report. Foreign Minister Bimala Rai Paudyal's visit to Geneva for a high-level session of the UN Human Rights Council has been cancelled too. The report said the PM asked her to cancel to the trip just hours before she was to fly.