Who Will Win Lok Sabha Elections 2024? Final Phase Nears Amid Intense Speculation

"Who Will Win Lok Sabha Elections 2024?" Is it possible for journos to have "insider information" on poll results? Can exit polls and campaign narratives help us guess the outcome? Read to find out.

Lok Sabha Election Results 2024: As the seventh and final phase of polling draws near, there is just one question on everyone's lips — "Who will win the Lok Sabha elections 2024?" As journalists working nearly 24×7 both on the desk and the ground during the election season, we often face the ubiquitous question — "Which way is the wind blowing?" What they really mean is: "Pretty sure you have insider information on the results." Trust me on this, journalists just diligently executing their duties without bias do not and cannot have this "insider information". It is true, however, that journalists have party sources who may make them privy to the organisation's internal reports, insights, and exit polls, predicting a "thumping majority" in their favour, but the "insider information" ends there.

While political pundits, experts, psephologists, and politicians themselves may claim to have "accurate" stats to support their "findings" during exit polls, there is probably no science that can "accurately" predict the results. In recent times, exit polls have been proven wrong on several occasions, such as the 2015 Delhi Assembly Polls, the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, and the 2004 Lok Sabha elections.

Of course, exit polls may give one a fair idea about the "way in which the wind is blowing", but that's that. A bull's eye "prediction" is nearly impossible.

Narratives Of 2024 Lok Sabha Elections

The narratives spun by political parties and their leaders can also help the average political enthusiast understand the agenda of the elections. For example, the Congress seems to have set its eyes on pushing for "nyay", or "justice". Its manifesto claims that the Congress will ensure five types of 'nyay' if it comes to power — ‘Yuva Nyay (justice for youth)’, ‘Naari Nyay (justice for women)’, ‘Kisaan Nyay (justice for farmers)’, ‘Shramik Nyay (justice for workers)’, and ‘Hissedari Nyay (participatory justice)’.

The BJP, on the other hand, is hoping to ride on pro-Hindutva and nationalist sentiments. The BJP, which used to call offers of freebies by Opposition parties "rewari [a type of sweet]", seems to be banking heavily on its schemes of freebies. In its manifesto, it claims that the party would provide free ration, free power, free healthcare, free gas, and free educational courses.

Fear Files Feat. BJP And Congress

The two largest parties this time — the BJP and the Congress — seemed to be going all out to woo and even "scare" voters. Both parties are levelling unfounded allegations against each other in the hopes of swinging voters in their favour. While the Congress has been telling people that their rights would be snatched away if the BJP comes to power, the saffron party has repeatedly asserted that the Congress has promised to distribute the wealth of Hindus, including homes and women's 'mangalsutra' among Muslims. 

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi in his rallies sought to strike a chord with the general masses, especially those belonging to the SC, ST, and OBC communities. He could be seen carrying a red copy of the Constitution to every rally he went to, a trend later picked up by other opposition leaders.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi's approach has been a targeted attack on the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who, the grand old party claims, will finish the Constitution of India as we know it. The party has repeatedly claimed that the BJP plans to snatch the rights of OBC, SC, and ST communities. The charge has been repeatedly denied by the ruling BJP.

On the other hand, the BJP's attack, spearheaded by PM Modi, has mostly spent its time explaining "Congress's sinister plan to hand over the country's resources to Muslims" if it came to power. The BJP has claimed it's not against Muslims but only against the exploitation of Hindus. The BJP further claims that it is by no means polarising Hindus and Muslims and is certainly not using religion as a poll plank "like the Congress". But the irony of the statement was not lost on even the most ardent supporter of the saffron party when the Ayodhya Ram Mandir was inaugurated ahead of the elections, with nearly a year left for its completion.

RaGa, NaMo and The Media 

The approaches of both the ruling BJP and the Opposition I.N.D.I.A bloc have been full of twists and turns as the phases of voting progressed. Perhaps the highlight of BJP's surprising approach was PM Modi lashing out at the Congress using the names "Adani & Ambani", given that it is the Opposition that always slams the BJP for the Prime Minister's perceived proximity to both the industrialists. On the flip side, the Congress, which always shared cordial ties with the media during the previous elections, seemed to take news outlets head-on.

Abuses were hurled from both sides. However, Rahul Gandhi, who was seen agreeing to impromptu interviews among the public before the elections in 2019, has appeared in only one media interview ahead of the Lok Sabha polls in 2024. He has even gone on to describe sections of the media as "chamchas" or sycophants. Looks like he is taking the 'mann ki baat', a one-way route by addressing public meetings and rallies. The Congress's manifesto, though, promises "to restore freedom of speech and expression, including full freedom of the media".

On the other hand, PM Modi seems to be going the extra mile to shed his "scared of the media" image crafted by the Opposition, by appearing in over 80 interviews. However, an open press conference eludes the media even after two terms of Modi.

Partnerships — Of Old And New

Whether the BJP wins the elections or not will be known on June 4, but one area where the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance beats the Opposition — the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A) — is alliance. The BJP's allies have been standing rock solid by it, and the saffron party has even managed to stitch new partnerships. Although it lost its oldest NDA partner the Shiromani Akali Dal over the now-repealed three farm laws, the BJP rekindled flames of old alliances in Karnataka with the JDS and tore away the Shiv Sena and the NCP in Maharashtra to ally with the parties' "real" factions. It also managed to onboard leaders from Opposition parties, like the Congress, in various states across India.

However, the Opposition I.N.D.I.A bloc has been plagued by infighting among the constituent parties from the start. The rift grew larger and came out in the open when Bihar CM Nitish Kumar, who re-floated the idea of 'one candidate per seat' for the Opposition, left the alliance and joined the NDA. Then, Bengal CM Mamata seemed to walk out of the alliance. Not wanting to hurt what she had in hand, CM Banerjee refused to ally with the Congress and the CPM in Bengal so as not to appear to be compromising with her "no Left, no Congress" ideology. This prompted the Congress, led by Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, to attack her at every opportunity. However, she recently said she may think of providing "outside support" to the alliance in case it falls short of the majority.

There is also a theory that the TMC is going alone in Bengal to ensure the anti-TMC votes, which used to be for the Left and the Congress, don't end up going to the BJP and making it stronger. We will have to wait until June 4 to know whether this strategy worked.   

Another problem has been the Congress's bitter-sweet ties with the AAP and the Left. The Congress-Left alliance in Tripura fought the Lok Sabha elections on the two seats in Tripura for the first time since 1952. In Bengal, the Congress-Left alliance suffered a hiccup when a Left constituent ISF walked out of the partnership. In states like Bihar, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra — states where both parties are on the backfoot — the Left and the Congress seem to be agreeing with one another's ideology. But in Kerala, the parties have daggers drawn ready to move in for the kill. 

Similarly, after much back and forth in Delhi, the Congress and the AAP have managed to strike a seat-sharing deal in Delhi. But in Punjab, they are taking each other by the horns. Even on the Sonitpur seat in Assam, both AAP and Congress have fielded their candidates.

Going by the progress of the phases of elections, it is quite difficult to predict the "direction of the wind" right now, but one can easily infer that no party or leader is sitting at rest confident of a win.