Rajasthan: State With Trend Of Alternating Govts Crucial In BJP Vs Congress Semi-Finals 

As the BJP and the Congress fight it out to win Rajasthan, here's a look at the state and its electoral history.

The 200-member Rajasthan Assembly will be a crucial state to watch out for ahead of the mega poll battle of 2024. While the incumbent Congress government looks confident under the leadership of veveteran Ashok Gehlot, the BJP is in no mood to relent. The run-up to the announcement of the election schedule, saw the saffron party cornering the government on allegations of corruption, law and order situation, Gehlot-Sachin Pilot infighting and charges led by former minister Rajendra Gudha in his 'red diary'.

Pinning hopes on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his vociferous tirade against the Congress in election speeches, the BJP is set to give a tough battle to the grand old party in the state which has not repeated government in nearly decades since 1993. As Gehlot counts on the welfare schemes, the BJP awaits the Modi magic to work its charm.

History Of Alternating Governments

If tradition were to repeat, the future looks bright for the BJP as the Rajasthan voters have elected alternate governments since 1993. The Congress is relying on welfare schemes, reintroduction of the Old Pension, and subsidised cooking gas to buck the trend of not repeating state governments. Top leaders such as Sachin Pilot and Gaurav Gogoi exuded confidence that this time around, Congress would retain power and break the trend of three decades. However, the open feud between Gehlot and Pilot through its last term might play a spoilsport in the party's ambitious endeavours. The BJP also had its share of problems to tackle with former CM Vasundhara Raje's loyalists being denied tickets and threatening to fight as independent candidates. 

What Surveys Say On 'Guarantees', Key Concerns

The Congress has promised to remove the 50 per cent limit in reservation for Schedule Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and OBCs if voted to power and according to the ABP-CVoter snap poll survey around 40 per cent of people believed that promises would benefit the ruling party considerably.

Another survey on the key concerns in the poll-bound state showed that for 19.9 per cent of people inflation would be the most important issue in the upcoming elections, 25.4 per cent opined it would be inflation, 15.3 per cent said law and order, 4.6 per cent said caste census, 4.3 per cent of the respondents said communal harmony would be a key factor, 9.1 per cent said farm issues, 5.5 per cent said corruption, 8.7 per cent said overall development and 2.7 per cent said other issues would eventually decide the poll outcome. Another 4.6 per cent of the voters said they did not have any opinion on the subject.

Opinion Poll 

As per the survey, conducted in the first week of October, the BJP is slated to win anywhere between 127 to 137 seats in the 200-member Assembly. The majority mark for a party to form the government is 101. The saffron party is likely to get around 46 per cent of the votes, a jump from the 38 per cent it received in the 2018 election.

On the other hand, Congress is likely to bag between 59 to 69 seats, with a vote share of 42 per cent.