Rajasthan Exit Poll Result 2023: 'Revolving Door' Trend Likely To Continue As BJP Has The Edge

Rajasthan Exit Poll Result 2023: Rajasthan, which voted in a single phase on November 25, witnessed a direct contest between the ruling Congress and BJP.

Rajasthan is likely to stay true to its 'revolving door' trend and see a return of BJP to power, according to ABP-CVoter exit poll. The ABP-CVoter exit poll has predicted BJP, which banked on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and did not project a chief ministreial face, will get anywhere between 94 to 114 seats. The Congress is predicted to get 71 to 91 seats, but see a rise in vote share to 41.1 per cent from 39.3 per cent it received in the 2018 polls.

Voting for 199 out of the 200 assembly seats in Rajasthan was held on November 25 and counting of votes will take place on December 3. Voting in Karanpur assembly constituency was postponed due to the death of the Congress candidate.

Earlier in the day, Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot said Congress would form the government no matter what exit polls said and BJP would be defeated in all the five states that went to the hustings 

"People will repeat our government in Rajasthan and there are 3 reasons for this. The first reason is that there is no anti-incumbency wave against the government, even experts are saying so. The second one is CM. BJP voters will also say that the CM left no stone unturned in carrying out development work. Third is the language spoken by the Prime Minister, Home Minister, BJP Chief Ministers and Union Ministers during the campaign. Nobody liked that language," ANI quoted Gehlot as saying.

In the 2018 Rajasthan Assembly election, Congress emerged as the single largest party with 99 seats and went on to form the government with the support of some Independents. The Vasundhara Raje-led BJP secured only 73 seats.

Rajasthan Exit Polls 2023: Region-Wise Prediction

In the Dhundhar region, which comprises of 58 seats, BJP and Congress will see a neck-and-neck contest. Here, ABP-CVoter exit poll has predicted Congress will win 26-30 seats and BJP 25-29 seats. The region lies in the east-central part of Rajasthan and comprises Jaipur, Dausa, Tonk and Sawai Madhopur districts.

The BJP is likely to steal a march in the Hadauti region, which has 17 assembly constituencies, and bag anywhere between 11-15 seats. Congress is likely to win 2-6 seats.

The Marwad region will also see a close contest, with ABP-CVoter giving BJP anywhere between 28-32 seats out of the 60 constituencies. Congress will bag 23-27 seats here.

The Mewar region, which saw a high-pitched campaign, is likely to be dominated by the BJP, with the party set to bag 23-27 seats. Congress may win 11-15 seats out of the 43 seats.

Congress is likely to have their noses ahead in the Shekhawati region, which comprises of 21 seats. The grand old party is likely to secure anywhere between 9-13 seats while BJP may bag 7-11 seats.

Congress Vs BJP Manifesto Promises

Congress is banking on its array of welfare schemes touching the OBCs, farmers and women and CM Ashok Gehlot's mass connect to return to power. In its manifesto, Congress has promised a law guaranteeing Minimum Support Price (MSP) for crops in a bid to woo the farming community and doubling of the amount for Chiranjeevi health insurance scheme beneficiaries from Rs 25 lakh to Rs 50 lakh annually.

On the other hand, BJP has promised a subsidy of Rs 450 per LPG cylinder under its Ujjwala scheme, 2.5 lakh government jobs and a slew of security measures for women in its manifesto. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has extensively canvassed in Rajasthan, highlighted corruption, paper leaks in government recruitment exams and crimes against women to corner the Gehlot government.

Former minister Rajendra Gudha's claims of possessing a "red diary" containing details of corruption involving the Chief Minister, his son and aides has also been ratcheted up by BJP in its rallies during campaigning.

(Methodology: Current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Exit Poll / Post Poll personal interviews conducted on pollling day and after polling day among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters, details of which are mentioned right below the projections as of today. The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the States. Sometimes the table figures do not sum to 100 due to the effects of rounding. Our final data file has Socio-Economic profile within +/- 1% of the Demographic profile of the State. We believe this will give the closest possible trends. The sample spread is across all Assembly segments in the poll bound state. MoE is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at micro level VOTE SHARE projection with 95% confidence interval.)