Delhi Elections 2025: The election season in Delhi has concluded as voting comes to an end, with the final poll percentage at 60.44% as per the Election Commission voter app. Delhi is a Union Territory (UT), officially the National Capital Territory, and has an elected government to run it, but its administrative control is even lesser than that of UTs like Puducherry or the newly reorganised Jammu and Kashmir. Even then, the Delhi assembly election is always a hotly contested affair, with surprises emerging from time to time.
For example, in the Lok Sabha elections of 2014, 2019, and 2024, the BJP made a clean sweep of all seven Parliamentary seats, but the Delhi assembly elections held in 2015 and 2020 gave a sweeping majority to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Interestingly, the Congress, which remained in power with Sheila Dikshit as Chief Minister for three terms from 1998 to 2013, has not been able to regain control of the Delhi assembly. Instead, the new entrant, the AAP, has held the Chief Minister's position since 2013.
Not only is the Delhi assembly unique in general, but some assembly seats are even more interesting to observe, one such being the South-East district-based Okhla constituency.
Assembly Constituency 54 Okhla — Where Parties Don't Matter
Do not be surprised if the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) manages to open its account in the Delhi assembly this election. This could be possible because of the candidate it has fielded — Shifa Ur Rehman Khan. Before we analyse the current dynamics, let us understand how the Okhla assembly seat has behaved in the past.
The first assembly election in Okhla after the reorganisation of Delhi in 1993 saw Parvez Hashmi winning the seat on a Janata Dal ticket. The same candidate won again in the 1998 Delhi assembly election from Okhla, but this time he was contesting on a Congress ticket. Hashmi continued his winning streak in the 2003 and 2008 Delhi assembly elections under the Congress flag. In 2009, the Congress rewarded him by sending him to the Rajya Sabha, where he served until 2018.
The vacant Okhla seat saw bypolls in 2009, which brought Rashtriya Janata Dal candidate Asif Muhammad Khan to the forefront. Asif Khan completed his term and then contested the 2013 Delhi assembly election on a Congress ticket, winning the Okhla assembly seat. The Delhi assembly elections were held again in 2015 after the nascent AAP-led Kejriwal government, supported by the Congress, did not complete its term.
In the 2015 polls, Amanatullah Khan, representing the AAP, became the MLA from Okhla, repeating his success in the 2020 Delhi assembly polls with a record margin of votes. Amanatullah is no stranger to the Okhla assembly seat, as he had contested the elections on a Lok Janshakti Party ticket in 2008 and 2013.
From Parvez Hashmi to Asif Khan to Amanatullah, Okhla has been electing the candidate, not the party.
Geography, Demography Of Okhla
Lurking on the fag end of South (east) Delhi, right around the edge of the Yamuna River and on the border of Uttar Pradesh — this is the geography of the Okhla assembly. Despite being geographically placed in the southern portion of Delhi, the Okhla assembly comes under the East Delhi Lok Sabha seat.
As of now, Okhla has five wards in its assembly constituency: Madanpur Khadar East, Madanpur Khadar West, Sarita Vihar, Abul Fazal Enclave, and Zakir Nagar.
The most densely populated areas of the Okhla assembly have a high Muslim population density, especially in areas like Zakir Nagar, Joga Bai, Batla House, Abul Fazal Enclave, Noor Nagar, Gaffar Manzil, Haji Colony, Okhla Vihar and Shaheen Bagh.
Precursor Of 2025 Delhi Assembly Elections
In December 2019, the CAA-NRC protest took centre stage in the area, with Shaheen Bagh becoming the epicentre. The Delhi assembly elections 2020 took place amid the protest, and saw Amanatullah win the Okhla seat with a record number of votes (he secured more than 1.3 lakh votes).
Soon after the Delhi elections concluded, the Northeast Delhi riots took place. The riots flared up, impacting many houses and businesses in the area. In all, 53 people were killed in the 2020 violence, the majority of them Muslims.
It was in connection with a 2020 Northeast Delhi riots conspiracy case that the former president of the Alumni Association of Jamia Millia Islamia (AAJMI), Shifa Ur Rehman, was arrested by the Delhi police in April 2020. He remains an undertrial prisoner in the case.
In 2020, the first COVID-19 wave was in place. The first major event in Delhi that flared up the issue of COVID-19 community spread was the Tablighi Jamaat congregation that took place at Nizamuddin Markaz Mosque in March 2020. It was seen as a "super-spreader" event and the handling by the Kejriwal-led Delhi government did not sit well with the Muslim community. This was reflected in the Delhi MCD polls in 2022.
Despite Amanatullah Khan’s record-breaking victory in 2020, he faced a major setback in the MCD elections. Of the five wards in the Okhla assembly constituency, the AAP lost four — two went to the BJP, and two were won by the Congress. The Muslim-majority wards in the Okhla constituency — Abul Fazal Enclave, which includes Shaheen Bagh, and Zakir Nagar — elected Congress leaders as their municipal corporators.
One of the corporators who won from the Abul Fazal Enclave ward was Ariba Khan from Congress, the daughter of former MLA Asif Khan. Congress looking at the margins of victory and the sentiments of the areas shown during the 2022 MCD polls gave a ticket to the young Ariba Khan to contest in the Okhla Assembly seat.
It appeared that the Muslim-dominated area may see another victory for the Grand Old Party. Disgruntled by the AAP's approach, Amantullah Khan was facing the brunt from the local masses for reasons other than political as well. At a point in time, it was clear that it would be a sharp AAP Vs Congress battle in the Okhla assembly seat.
Okhla Sentiments Flipping?
Just a day before the announcement of poll dates by the Election Commission, the AIMIM announced that Shifa Ur Rehman will be the candidate from Okhla. Initially, the Congress and the AAP did not feel threatened as many candidates contest the elections.
It all started changing when AIMIM chief and Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi made his first public appearance for the AIMIM candidate, doing a speech and rally from Zakir Nagar to Batla House. The message for the locals was that the Jamia alumnus languishing in jail as an undertrial accused in the Delhi riots needed a fair trial.
A sentimental appeal from Shifa Ur Rehman's family members, especially his wife and kids, also struck a chord with female voters whose children are studying in Jamia Millia Islamia (JMI) or are associated with the university in one way or the other.
Congress candidate Ariba Khan, who was looking for a comfortable victory, all of a sudden had to start an aggressive campaign on two fronts, one against the AIMIM (but not naming Shifa Ur Rehman directly) and the other against the AAP. The Congress candidate called the AIMIM's plan to contest the Okhla assembly election a trick to aid the BJP by dividing the Muslim votes of the constituency.
The AAP ran a similar narrative, that the BJP would win if Muslim votes remained divided.
On the last day of campaigning on Monday, February 3, Asaduddin Owaisi conducted another public rally along with Shifa Ur Rehman, out on parole. It saw a huge public turnout, by certain local estimates it was five times what the organisers had anticipated.
After the campaigning ended, open support for Shifa Ur Rehman, at least on social media platforms, came to light. With WhatsApp statuses and messages being forwarded in family groups saying, "Shifa Bhai Ki Hawa Hai [There's a Wave of Support for Shifa]", and chanting catchy slogans like "Okhla Ka Ishara Button Number 11 [Okhla To Press Button 11 (his serial number in EVM)]".
Another factor that aided Shifa's popularity is the JMI's alumni base backing him just on sentimental values. There have been reports that certain people have come from parts of UP, Bihar and other nearby places just to show support for Shifa Ur Rehman.
Another interesting development to watch is that the BJP's Manish Chaudhary could emerge victorious if Amanatullah, Ariba, and Shifa all garner roughly equal support from the Muslim vote bank. Okhla’s two most populated wards — Abul Fazal Enclave and Zakir Nagar — are Muslim-dominated, and a split in the community's vote could pave the way for the BJP's win on the back of a consolidated vote from its supporters.
The Madanpur area has a mixed population, and previously leaned towards the BSP, but recent ward elections indicate a shift towards the BJP. Sarita Vihar is predominantly Hindu-populated, and the BJP enjoys significant support there.
Who will emerge victorious remains to be seen on February 8, but the Okhla assembly seat, which was expected to be a contest between the AAP and the Congress, has turned into a three-way battle and could even become a four-way contest, making it a must-watch Box Office on counting day, along with the New Delhi and Kalkaji assembly seats.
Meanwhile, most exit polls have predicted a favourable outcome for the BJP in Delhi, with the AAP barely holding on by a thin margin, according to a few pollsters. While the Congress is projected to secure a couple of seats in the exit polls, none of the pollsters has shown a seat for the AIMIM.