Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024: The Bharatiya Janata Party backing Raj Thackeray's son Amit Thackeray on the Mahim Assembly seat is proving to be a double-edged sword for the Mahayuti. Already plagued by a rebellion by a horde of senior leaders, the Mahayuti is now having to deal with friction with one of its oldest allies — the Shiv Sena.
The Mahayuti had just recovered from what seemed to be discontentment over the Lok Sabha election results and the central cabinet portfolio allotment that followed. The seeming rift purportedly widened when the NCP joined the BJP-led alliance.
The bone of contention now is the Mahim Assembly seat, which is being contested by Raj Thackeray's son Amit Thackeray, and Shiv Sena's sitting MLA Sadanand Sarvnakar. The Opposition alliance, Maha Vikas Aghadi, has fielded the Mahesh Sawant from the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray).
Raj Thackeray's U-Turns With BJP
The Raj Thackeray-BJP bonhomie came as a surprise for many. Thackeray has had a generally bitter past with the BJP. Senior BJP leader Rajnath Singh had accused Thackeray of seeking votes during the campaign for the 2014 elections in the name of Narendra Modi without pledging his alliance to the NDA. Raj Thackeray had slammed Singh for his comment then.
Right before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Raj Thackeray reportedly turned down a BJP request to refrain from contesting the polls. The BJP purportedly conveyed the request to Thackeray via Nitin Gadkari to prevent a Marathi votes split between the MNS and the undivided Shiv Sena. However, the MNS contested 10 seats, raking in over 7 lakh votes, but failed to enter the Lok Sabha. When MNS made its debut in 2009, it polled over 15 lakh votes but couldn't win a single seat out of the 11 it contested. But MNS's entry definitely split the Marathi votes.
In 2019, however, the MNS did not contest the polls but opposed PM Modi, taking a U-turn from his 2014 stance. Again, before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Raj Thackeray took another U-turn and declared "unconditional support" for the BJP.
Right after the Lok Sabha elections, however, he took a U-turn yet again and took on the BJP in the Legislative Council polls.
And now, although the MNS is fielding candidates against the Mahayuti candidates in the 2024 Maharashtra assembly elections, Raj Thackeray seems to be leaning towards the BJP, even as his acrimony towards the Shiv Sena, be it the Uddhav faction or the Eknath Shinde camp, remains the same.
At the ABP Shikhar Sammelan held in Mumbai earlier this week, Raj Thackeray slammed the Eknath Shinde government for "making Mumbai look like a dance bar", but voiced his approval for the BJP. He said the next CM of Maharashtra will be from the BJP and it could be Devendra Fadnavis.
BJP's Problems With Raj Thackeray
The BJP has had to face opposition from Balasaheb Thackeray's nephew on multiple fronts. Right from 2006, when Raj Thackeray floated his own party after parting ways with the Shiv Sena the previous year, his constant U-turns have had BJP in a tight spot.
Raj Thackeray had in 2018 gone to the extent of issuing a call for making a "Modi-mukt Bharat [Modi-free India]"
In 2019, in an interview to a TV channel, Raj Thackeray had said PM Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah had ruined the country. He said Modi had not fulfilled his promises on unemployment, and also accused him of using the deaths of Pulwama martyrs to seek votes. He said PM Modi was using dirty politics to seek votes.
Raj Thackeray's comments on North Indians are also a problem area for the BJP. Its key ally in the Lok Sabha, the JD-U, has consistently spoken out against the MNS chief. JD-U chief and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar even blamed the BJP in 2022 for failing to take action against Raj Thackeray for his stance against North Indians.
Another of the BJP's allies, the Republican Party of India, also appears to be against supporting Thackeray over his comments against party chief Ramdas Athawale. Thackeray had said he would rather shut down MNS than become a minister like Ramdas Athawale.
In 2008, he was even arrested for leading a campaign against "North Indians" from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in Mumbai.
Among his most infamous attacks on people from the region was in 2012 when he said: "Terrorism in Mumbai have grown due to the increase of the North Indians in the city." Since then, he has made multiple comments against North Indians.
Now, with Amit Thackeray contesting from Mahim, the birthplace of the Shiv Sena in 1966 as well as the MNS in 2006, the BJP has dual trouble. First, it has to convince the Shiv Sena to pull out of the Mahim race and extend support to Amit Thackeray. It must be noted that the constituency is a prestige seat for both the Shiv Senas and the MNS. Second, in case the BJP decides to stitch a post-poll alliance, it has to justify the move to Nitish Kumar and the party's supporters in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.
Why Is BJP Supporting Raj Thackeray's Son In Mahim?
So why is the BJP keen on supporting Amit Thackeray?
Although the MNS has hardly made a mark in terms of electoral seats, Raj Thackeray's appeal to the 'Marathi manoos' remains large. With the Shiv Sena votes divided between Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde, and the recent poor performance in the Lok Sabha elections, the Mahayuti is sailing in choppy waters.
Moreover, the decision of Maratha quota protest leader Manoj Jarange Patil to back Maratha candidates is also worrying the BJP. The party has already had a setback in the Marathwada region in eastern Maharashtra, which is considered the Maratha heartland with around 30% Maratha population. The BJP lost seven of the eight Lok Sabha seats in Marathwada. The region has 48 assembly seats.
The BJP would be hoping to get votes on the 'Marathi Asmita' sentiment that Raj Thackeray has been commanding since 2006.
BJP leader Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis said Thursday the party's support for Raj Thackeray's MNS stemmed from the fact that he had "embraced the path of Hindutva". During the Ram Mandir's inauguration in Ayodhya, Raj Thackeray had hailed PM Modi for his efforts in building the temple. "Ram Mandir was possible because of a Ram Bhakt like Modi is the PM."
This was despite Thackeray having to cancel a scheduled visit to Ayodhya after BJP MP Brij Bhushan's warning to him over his "anti-North Indian stance".
In recent times, Raj Thackeray has carefully manoeuvred the political gullies on the Hindutva plank backing the BJP and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP. According to media reports, Thackeray issued a "counter-fatwa" in his rallies in Pune and Kalyan to back the BJP and the NCP. Alleging that mosques were issuing fatwas to vote for the Uddhav Sena, Raj Thackeray urged "Hindu mothers, brothers and sisters to cast their vote in favour of the BJP and its allies".
It now remains to be seen whether the Mahayuti is able to find a way to support Raj Thackeray in Mahim and is able to leverage Raj Thackeray's hold on the 'Marathi manoos' to get the votes.