The allies
In the upcoming election ‘Mahagathbandhan’ which comprises of Rashtriya Janata Dal (JDU), Congress, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and other smaller parties will faceoff NDA (JDU, BJP and LJP). BJP and JDU will fight on 17 seats each and rest 6 will be contested by LJP.
Amid reports of a rift over the seat-sharing agreement in the state, the opposition mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) has announced its seat-share pact and candidates for next month's national election. Rubbishing reports of a breakdown in talks with the Congress, former Deputy CM and leader of Opposition in the state Tejaswi Yadav made it clear that the grand alliance is unbreakable. Under the umbrella of the grand alliance, RJD will fight on 19 seats, Congress on 9, Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) on 5, HAM on 3 and Vikasshil Insan Party (VIP) 3. RJD has also given 1 seat out of its quota to CPI (ML).
Vote share in 2014 General Elections
Since the beginning of electoral democracy in India, Bihar (earlier Bihar + Jharkhand) has always been a politically active state where a number of smaller parties irrespective of nationwide presence and independents enter the fight in every election. Because of this, the vote dividend of the mainstream political parties usually gets restricted around 70-80 per cent. There always have been multi-cornered contests, any party which has a base of about 25 per cent or more has a good probability of winning elections if it could form an alliance with smaller parties to take the vote per cent to 30-35 per cent.
JD (U) – a worry alliance for BJP
The BJP has increased its vote base from 11 per cent in 2005 to 24.4 (the highest) in 2014 but its ally JDU which was in the 2nd position with a vote per cent of 14.55 in Feb 2005 Assembly polls managed to reach 20.46 per cent vote share in the Oct 2005 Assembly polls, both in alliance with the BJP (Combined NDA). It secured 18.84 per cent vote share in alliance with the BJP in 2010 Assembly elections with a victory on 115 seats out of 141 seats contested. But, in the 2014 general elections, it was pushed back to the 3rd position with 15.80 per cent vote share when it contested alone after breaking up from NDA and could not improve its vote share substantially thereafter.
JDU despite being popular in the state is getting an equal number of seats to contest as BJP may be a circumstance compulsion for BJP because the party doesn’t have any poll face in the state and incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar irrespective of him losing his popularity has always represented NDA since 2015.
Cast based scenario in 2019
In addition to 18.6 per cent of the upper caste votes, Bihar has almost 4.7 per cent Paswan/Dusadh votes and 5.9 per cent Kurmi votes that might yield winning seats more than expected for NDA due to Nitish and Ramvilas Paswan factor. The EBC or other OBC of 2.6 per cent can still swing any side and can have an impact on one or two seats. I have counted Chamars 4.9 per cent of the vote share in others as it can swing either side, looking at the scenario it might favour the grand alliance due to the social chemistry with lower casts.
Begusarai Seat
The Begusarai seat with a slogan “Chahe bum gire ya gola, jitega sirf bhola” for former MP and speaker of state assembly late Bhola Singh – who was earlier a communist leader but later changed many parties. The CPI, despite fighting a losing battle in the state tried to convince the grand alliance that it would win the seat. CPI suggested that it had won the seat before and if they have not won, they have come in second. Unhappy Giriraj Singh will certainly break the moral of the local cadre and it looks to be an interesting battle.
Muzaffarpur Seat
The home shelter case and Muzaffarpur listed in top polluted cities of the globe might impact the election of current MP Ajay Nishad despite huge traditional Kayasth vote bank for NDA in the city.
Few seats to worry for NDA
Patna Sahib – Shatrughan Sinha (Sitting MP but a rebel, ticket cancelled). Darbhanga – Kirti Azad a sitting MP joined Congress recently. Bhola Singh MP from Begusarai died in October 2018. Madhubani MP Hukumdev Narain Singh has already announced he will not contest elections. Despite party winning on 22 seats is fighting on 17 seats only and these rifts might divide the always undivided upper caste vote for the saffron party.
The author is Chief Executive Officer of Manthan Trust
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