Haryana Exit Polls: The BJP, which had been plagued by a multitude of problems in the run up to the Haryana Assembly Elections, is looking at a massive loss. Most pollsters have predicted a big drop from its previous tally of 40 in 2019 in the exit polls released after the voting concluded on Saturday.
Although exit polls have been known to go wrong in the past, they give us a fair idea about which way the scales are going to tilt.
Going to the polls, the BJP was faced with anti-incumbency, rebellions, and factionalism. Right before the polls, it ousted eight heavyweight leaders who decided to contest as independents. But perhaps its worst crisis this year was its break up with Dushyant Chautala's Jannayak Janta Party, which led to the fall of the Manohar Lal Khattar government.
The split with JJP in March meant that it had lost a big chunk of Jat voters and had to focus on consolidating the General category votes within six months. Votes from the Jat community, which comprises nearly 30% of Haryana's population, are likely to have been split among Dushyant Chautala's JJP, Abhay Chautala's INLD, and the Congress. But the Congress seemed to be the highest gainer from the BJP-JJP split, if the exit polls are anything to go by.
However, soon after the break-up, both BJP and JJP suffered as tall leaders walked out. The BJP, struck by an anti-incumbency wave, decided to take a radical approach to the elections, fielding 60 new candidates.
The BJP also has been grappling with discontent among the wrestlers of the state and the agrarian community. Unemployment and the confusion over the Agnipath Scheme haven't helped the BJP either.
In the poll campaigns ahead of the Haryana elections, the Congress built on the anti-incumbency in the state. The party also sought to gain the support of the wrestling community by fielding Olympian Vinesh Phogat from Julana.
The exit polls now seem to point that the Congress's efforts paid off as the BJP is staring at a huge loss, missing out on a hat-trick in Haryana.
| Name | BJP | Congress | INLD | JJP | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dhruv Research | 27 | 57+ | - | 0 | 6 |
| CVoter | 20-28 | 50-58 | - | 0-2 | 10-14 |
| Matrize | 18-24 | 55-62 | 3-6 | 0-3 | 2-8 |
| People's Pulse | 26 (+/-7) | 55 (+/-7) | 2-3 | - | 4-6 |
| Dainik Bhaskar | 15-29 | 44-54 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 6-9 |
| News24-Chanakya | 18-24 | 55-62 | - | - | 2-5 |
| Times Now | 22-32 | 50-64 | - | - | 2-8 |
| JIST-TIF Research | 29-37 | 43-53 | 0-2 | 0 | 4-6 |