Ahmedabad: Gujarat votes on Monday, December 5, in the second and final phase of polling for a crucial election that has assumed an uncanny suspense after a tepid turnout of 63.31% in the first round for 89 seats, which was 5% lower than in 2017. This, despite 2022 seeing a high-voltage campaign in a three-cornered fight.
The turnout fell short of the aggressive campaign of the BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and of new entrant Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which is largely responsible for creating a third corner in a state known for its bipolar nature. The traditional opposition party Congress, meanwhile, had adopted a low-profile door-to-door campaign approach.
The devil is in the data released by the Election Commission on the voting pattern in the first phase, and this makes it even more crucial for the BJP to improve its performance in the second phase of 93 seats in 14 districts in Central Gujarat and North Gujarat where there are more urban than rural seats. These include the key cities of Ahmedabad, Vadodara and Gandhinagar.
Saurashtra, Kutch and South Gujarat regions are a mix of urban, peri-urban, rural, Adivasis, pastoral and farmer populations who went to polls for 89 seats in 19 districts on December 1 and it is these seats that had played a pivotal role in reducing the BJP to double digits, 99, in 2017 and gave the Congress its best, 77 seats. Except Devbhumi Dwarka, which registered a rise of 1.9 percent points, all the 18 districts reported a drop in polling over 2017.
What The Phase 1 Numbers Say
Deciphering the numbers reveals that most seats in the Congress stronghold tribal districts of South Gujarat reported polling of around 70% or more, with the Narmada district reporting the highest of 78.4% — though all reported lower turnout than the previous 2017 election. The Congress and its allies had got 18 out of 27 seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribes (Adivasis) and the BJP managed 9 last time.
There is one more critical piece of data. The overall voting by women in as many as 83 out of 89 seats in the first phase was less than in 2017, and this may not be music to the BJP’s ears since women in Gujarat have been known to favour the BJP. What is even more intriguing is the fact that four of the six seats where women surpassed the polling of 2017 fall in the same Congress stronghold Adivasi belt in South Gujarat, and two are in the industrial suburb of Surat city.
Prof Amit Dholakia, head of the department of political science at MS University in Vadodara, says: “The overall low percentage of polling as compared to 2017 is a reflection of a general sense of fatigue among the voters. I think it would impact all the three main political parties equally.”
Dholakia, however, feels the voting pattern in the South Gujarat tribal belt, especially the good percentage of women, may be a sign of worry for the BJP.
“I have observed that the local issues, at times hyperlocal ones too, have got prominence in the voter’s scheme of things. They are more discerning about the kind of candidates and their record. This is a positive trend of people sizing up their representatives before exercising their franchise,” he says.
Conventional logic surprisingly dismissed the December 2022 election as “an issue-less, wave-less, boring election” as well as that a third party would never succeed in Gujarat since earlier attempts to create a similar front had flopped.
Both arguments tend to miss two critical points: One, for the first time, education and health became serious election issues while a debate raged in the country over what were called freebies (further ridiculed as “free revdis”) whereas these two sectors are the primary responsibility of a socialistic welfare state. Whether AAP wins, is the first runner-up or is washed out, party chief Arvind Kejriwal brought these universal and local issues of education and health to the mainstream of electoral discourse in a state where development is defined in a narrow prism of real estate growth. With time, these issues would take centre stage.
Two, this is also for the first time that an independent political party that rules two states is contesting in Gujarat. The AAP is contesting 181 out of the 182 seats, unlike other third fronts in the state that were disgruntled splinter groups or offshoots and got rejected as opportunists. Two fronts emerged from the BJP — Rashtriya Janata Party of Shankersinh Vaghela and Gujarat Parivartan Party of Keshubhai Patel. The RJP got four and the GPP got two seats. Earlier versions were Kisan Mazdoor Lok Panchayat and Janata Dal (Gujarat) of Chimanbhai Patel.
GUJARAT WATCH: Read Complete Gujarat Assembly Election Coverage
Low Turnout Despite High-Octane Campaign
What has befuddled the political parties and the candidates alike is that the polling percentage was low though three full-fledged political parties put in their best. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was himself leading from the front with his party and all its leaders seeking votes in his name, while Kejriwal was also his party’s face — both spoke as the chief ministerial candidates themselves.
The Congress does not have a state-level leader who could become the party’s face and each of its candidates fights his or her own battle. And the trend has not been restricted to this election, it started right after Madhavsinh Solanki’s two consecutive best performances of 139 seats in 1980 and 149 in 1985 — a record the BJP is desperate to break. Those heydays and a leader like that no longer exists but the Congress still has maintained its vote share of 30% and continued to win not less than 50 to 60 seats, irrespective of a BJP or a Modi wave.
There are as many as 833 candidates from a mind-boggling 60 political parties, including the BJP, the Congress and the AAP, and independents in the fray.
More than the Congress’ almost-expected performance, the BJP was more concerned with the AAP juggernaut. This was also the reason for PM Modi’s aggressive campaign on December 1 and December 2, accompanied by two massive roadshows in Ahmedabad city, which has 16 seats. This is besides the large army of BJP leaders having campaigned across the state during the last one month.
While the December 1 polling was held in 19 districts, the second phase of voting would be held in 14 districts of North Gujarat and Central Gujarat, including Ahmedabad, Vadodara and Gandhinagar.
Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel is seeking his second term from Ghatlodia seat in Ahmedabad and is likely to win. Patidar leader Hardik Patel is fighting his maiden election on a BJP ticket from his hometown Viramgam in Ahmedabad district, while another young turk and Congress turncoat Alpesh Thakor is contesting from Gandhinagar South seat — also on a BJP ticket.
Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani, seeking a second term from Vadgam Scheduled Caste reserved constituency in North Gujarat’s Banaskantha district, is the only one among the 2017 troika that brought BJP perilously close to defeat who has remained with the Congress.
The writer is a veteran journalist and Founder Editor, Development News Network (DNN), Gujarat.
(The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd.)