Chhattisgarh Exit Poll: ABP-CVoter Survey Predicts Photo Finish For BJP, Congress

The Congress is looking to increase the tally of its tribal seats and retain power in Chhattisgarh, while the BJP is looking to wrest the state riding on corruption allegations against CM Baghel.

The results of the Chhattisgarh exit polls are out and it looks like a close contest between the Congress and the BJP. The Congress is projected to bag 43.4% share of the votes while the BJP is likely to follow close behind with a 41.2% vote share, according to the ABP-CVoter exit poll survey. The survey findings show that the BJP stands to gain the most in terms of vote share — a rise of 8.2% — since the last election. 

The ABP-CVoter Opinion poll on Chhattisgarh had predicted a neck-and-neck contest between the Congress and the BJP, with the former slightly edging ahead. The opinion poll had predicted the Congress winning 45-51 seats, with 36-42 seats in the BJP's kitty.

As predicted in the Opinion poll, the Congress is still projected to bag a majority of the seats — 41 to 53 — as per the exit poll. According to the ABP-CVoter exit poll projections, the BJP is likely to win 36 to 48 seats in the Chhattisgarh election.

The Congress, at present, commands 71 constituencies in the 90-member Chhattisgarh Assembly, while the BJP holds 14 seats.

The campaigning for Chhattisgarh was a heated one with the BJP and the Congress's partner in the I.N.D.I.A bloc, the AAP, targetting the Grand Old Party with corruption allegations. The campaigning reached a peak when the Enforcement Directorate began a probe in the Mahadev App case, linking the Rs 508 crore scam to CM Bhupesh Baghel. The BJP seized the opportunity to try and corner the Baghel government.

The Congress, refusing to be bogged down by the allegations, sought to capitalise on its pro-tribal image in the state. In fact, the Congress hopes to increase its tally of 26 tribal seats in the state since the last elections. CM Baghel also pushed the Hindutva agenda with temple renovations and the development of a Hindu religious tourist circuit — the Ram Van Gaman Path.

However, the issues of corruption and alleged factionalism (between CM Baghel and his deputy TS Singh Deo) could hit Congress hard. If the Congress manages to retain power, the immediate issues that the party will have to deal with would be to resolve any hint of post-poll factionalism within the party and then implement its guarantees. Last time, CM Bhupesh Baghel waived farmers' loans worth Rs 9,000 crore on the first day in office. However, this time, it would be a little more difficult to implement as the "guarantees" — like allowance for women, subsidies, old pension scheme, etc — are likely to cost the exchequer around Rs 40,000 crore in the first year itself.

Now, the three-day period till the December 3 results seems to be a long wait as the state waits anxiously to see if the Congress would repeat the government or whether the BJP can wrest power from it.

 

[Disclaimer: Current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Exit Poll / Post Poll personal interviews conducted on pollling day and after polling day among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters, details of which are mentioned right below the projections as of today. The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the States. Sometimes the table figures do not sum to 100 due to the effects of rounding. Our final data file has Socio-Economic profile within +/- 1% of the Demographic profile of the State. We believe this will give the closest possible trends. The sample spread is across all Assembly segments in the poll-bound state. MoE is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at micro level VOTE SHARE projection with 95% confidence interval.]