The SP-BSP-RLD 'Mahagatbandhan' is set to win a whopping 42 out of the 80 parliamentary seats on offer in the politically-crucial state while the BJP-led NDA is projected to play second fiddle by clinching 36 seats, 37 less than what it had won in 2014. The Congress-led UPA, like the last time, will face a massive drubbing and may win mere two seats.
A key finding of the survey is that the NDA will increase its vote share to 43 per cent in the coming polls from 42.6 per cent in 2014 but its seat tally will suffer a jolt. The SP-BSP-RLD combine is likely to get 42 per cent votes, one percentage point less than the NDA, but may get six seats more than the saffron coalition. The vote share of the Congress party will be confined to single digit (9 per cent).
Among VIP seats, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is projected to win from Varanasi, Home Minister Rajnath Singh from Lucknow, Union Minister VK Singh from Ghaziabad. The SP is likely to retain Mainpuri with its founder Mulayam Singh slated to win from his traditional turf. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav is likely to win from Azamgarh. Congress President Rahul Gandhi and his mother Sonia Gandhi are set to grab their traditional bastions of Amethi and Rae Bareli. In Muzaffarnagar, RLD chief Ajit Singh is likely to suffer defeat at the hands of BJP's Sanjeev Balyan, while his son Jayant Chaudhary is predicted to win from Baghpat seat. According to the survey, actor-turned politician and sitting MP Hema Malini will help the BJP retain the Mathura seat while senior SP leader Azam Khan will defeat Jaya Prada, who recently joined the BJP, in Rampur.
In major upsets, Union Minister Manoj Sinha is projected to lose from Ghazipur, his cabinet colleague Mahesh Sharma from Gautam Budh Nagar and UP minister Rita Bahuguna Joshi from Allahabad (Prayagraj) seat.
In 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP did exceedingly well in UP by winning 71 seats on its own (two were won by its ally Apna Dal). In 2019, the saffron party faces combined challenge of the SP, the BSP and the RLD. These three parties have forged an alliance to take on the BJP. They call it a 'Mahagathbandhan'. The Congress, which is fighting the polls on its own in the state, tried to inject new energy in its efforts by appointing Priyanka Gandhi Vadra as general secretary incharge of eastern UP.
Awadh Region
Uttar Pradesh's central Awadh region, which is political hotbed of the state, will witness a neck and neck contest between the 'Mahagathbandhan' and the NDA. Here, the NDA is projected to win 11 out of the 23 seats while the SP-BSP-RLD alliance may secure 10 seats. The Congress will be limited to two seats by only managing to retain its traditional bastions of Amethi and Rae Bareli.
Western Uttar Pradesh
As per the survey projections, the 'Mahagathbandhan' looks in commanding position in Western Uttar Pradesh. The region which has a strong presence of Jats, Gujjars and the Upper castes seems to be favouring the Bua-Bhatija combine over the NDA. While the 'Mahagatbandhan' is set to be the front runner winning 15 of the 27 seats, the NDA may get 12 seats. The Congress is out of the race, drawing a blank here.
Bundelkhand
The Bundelkhand region will see a pitched battle between the NDA and 'Mahagatbandhan'. Out of the four seats in the region, the NDA is projected to win Jalaun and Jhansi while the 'Mahagathbandhan' will add to its tally Banda and Hamirpur.
Purvanchal
The survey conducted in Purvanchal region, which entails the key constituencies of Varanasi, Azamgarh, Gorakhpur, Ghazipur, Balia and others, predicted massive inroads of the 'Mahagathbandhan' in NDA's traditional stronghold. The SP-BSP-RLD alliance here is slated to get 15 out of 26 seats and the NDA 11.