ABP-CVoter Opinion Poll: Can SP, Congress Prevent BJP From Sweeping Uttar Pradesh In Lok Sabha Polls?

ABP-CVoter Opinion Poll: Uttar Pradesh, which sends the most parliamentarians to the Lok Sabha (80), is a stronghold of the BJP with the Samajwadi Party and the Congress trying to change the scenario.

In the latest opinion poll conducted by ABP News and CVoter, projections reveal likely seat shares and vote percentages for the upcoming Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha elections. Uttar Pradesh sends the most parliamentarians to the Lok Sabha (80) and hence, holds the potential to significantly impact the outcome of general elections.

In terms of projected seat shares, the NDA is expected to secure 73 seats while the I.N.D.I.A bloc is projected to win seven seats, and the BSP is not expected to secure any seats.

A further breakdown reveals that within the NDA, the BJP is forecasted to win all 71 seats, Apna Dal (S) two, while within the I.N.D.I.A bloc, the Samajwadi Party is projected to secure seven seats, with the Congress contributing none.

In terms of vote share, the projections suggest that the BJP will garner 51.1%, followed by the Samajwadi Party with 38.1%, the BSP with 4.3%, and other parties collectively receiving 6.5%. The Congress is expected to fare behind ‘Others’ with zero percentage.

Lok Sabha Election 2024 In Uttar Pradesh

During the previous Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led NDA emerged victorious on 64 out of 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh, with the BJP alone securing 62 seats and its ally Apna Dal (Sonelal) clinching the remaining two seats. In contrast, the 'Mahagathbandhan' alliance, consisting of the Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, and Rashtriya Lok Dal, managed to secure 15 seats, while the Congress could only secure one seat.

A noteworthy instance from the last election includes Congress leader Rahul Gandhi's defeat to BJP's Smriti Irani in Amethi, a traditional stronghold of the Congress party.

To counter the ruling BJP, the Congress has forged a seat-sharing agreement with the Samajwadi Party, led by Akhilesh Yadav, under the I.N.D.I.A bloc. As part of the pre-poll seat-sharing agreement, the Congress will contest 17 seats, while the Samajwadi Party will field candidates in 62 constituencies. The remaining seat has been allocated to the Trinamool Congress.

Meanwhile, the BJP is in an alliance with the Apna Dal (S), Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), and NISHAD party which represent various OBC, Dalit, and disadvantaged sections in the state.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will once again contest the Lok Sabha election from the holy city of Varanasi, and the Congress has again tasked Ajay Rai to put up a fight against him.

Voting for the 2024 general elections in Uttar Pradesh will be conducted across all seven phases, commencing on April 19 and concluding on June 1, with the counting of votes scheduled for June 4.

(Methodology: Current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Opinion Poll CATI interviews (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) conducted among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters, details of which are mentioned right below the projections as of today. The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the States. Sometimes the table figures do not sum to 100 due to the effects of rounding. Our final data file has Socio-Economic profile within +/- 1% of the Demographic profile of the State. We believe this will give the closest possible trends. The sample spread is across all Assembly segments in the poll bound state. MoE is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at micro level VOTE SHARE projection with 95% Confidence interval.)