The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued weather alerts for Kerala and Tamil Nadu on Saturday. In Kerala, IMD has forecast a period of heavy rainfall from November 9 to 15. The department also predicts isolated thunderstorms and lightning with light to moderate rainfall anticipated across the state.
Additionally, isolated areas in Kerala may experience heavy downpours between November 13 and 15.
In Tamil Nadu, the Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC) has issued warnings for intense rain across several coastal districts over the next five days. Heavy rainfall has been forecast for Mayiladuthurai, Nagapattinam, Tiruvarur, Thanjavur, and Pudukkottai districts.
On Monday, regions including Chengalpattu, Villupuram, Cuddalore, and Ramanathapuram are also likely to experience significant rain. Chennai and its surrounding districts—Chengalpattu, Kancheepuram, Ranipet, Villupuram, and Cuddalore—are expected to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday, with rains anticipated to continue in other districts through the week, such as Tiruvallur, Thoothukudi, Tirunelveli, Kanniyakumari, Tenkasi, Virudhunagar, Madurai, and Sivagangai.
Officials noted that rainfall in Chennai, originally forecasted for earlier in the week, was delayed due to complex vortex dynamics, as per a report on IANS. Heavy rain is now expected in Chennai from November 11 to 17 with wet conditions likely across Tamil Nadu in the following weeks.
Low-Pressure System Influence
Explaining the cause of the weather pattern, the IMD stated that a cyclonic circulation located over the southwest Bay of Bengal remains active at altitudes up to 3.6 km above sea level. This system, which persisted over the area as of early November 9, is likely to develop into a low-pressure area within the next 36 hours.
Forecast models suggest this low-pressure area will gradually move westward toward the Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coasts. Satellite data shows scattered to broken clouds over the South and East-central Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea, and the Gulf of Martaban, with areas of intense convection, indicating high rainfall potential.