Parts of North India have begun to feel the winter chill in the air, but it appears Delhi will have to wait for a few more weeks to welcome the winter season. The mean temperature in October was recorded at 26.92 degrees Celsius, the warmest since 1901, against the normal of 25.69 degrees Celsius.
The India Meteorological Department has predicted that the temperatures will continue to remain 2-5 degrees above normal at least for the next two weeks before seeing a decline. It is also likely on account of the continued prevalence of the neutral El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
IMD Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra attributed the warmer weather to the absence of western disturbances and the influx of easterly winds due to active low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal. The IMD said the probability forecast indicates a higher chance of La Nina conditions developing during November-December in a gradual manner.
La Nina Can Set In By December
"ENSO (El Nino–Southern Oscillation) conditions are slowly evolving towards the negative side and La Nina can set in by December," Mohapatra said. He added that the weather agencies across the world got El Nino forecasts wrong this year.
Earlier, the IMD hinted at the possibility of a severe winter in north India, including Delhi-NCR. It had said that India is likely to witness an unusually harsh winter as the temperatures could fall to 3°C in some states. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) attributed this expected cold snap to the onset of La Niña in September 2024. La Nina a natural climate pattern that causes the ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific to cool.
"Northern states like Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Jammu and Kashmir are expected to be impacted as the temperatures may drop to around 3°C," it said. The colder conditions, coupled with increased rainfall, may adversely affect agriculture, particularly winter crops, and could lead to challenges in rural and remote areas.