Unlike Global Economy, India Will Not Slow Down And Maintain Pace Of Expansion Seen In 2022-23: RBI

India has emerged from the pandemic years stronger than initially thought, the Reserve Bank of India, in its monthly bulletin for March, said.

The Reserve Bank of India, in its monthly bulletin for March, said unlike the global economy, India would not slow down and maintain the pace of expansion achieved in 2022-23.

Even as global growth is set to slow down or even enter a recession in 2023 as global financial markets wager, India has emerged from the pandemic years stronger than initially thought, with a steady gathering of momentum since the second quarter of the current financial year, the RBI said.

"Also, unlike the global economy, India would not slow down – it would maintain the pace of expansion achieved in 2022-23. We remain optimistic about India, whatever the odds," the RBI said in its article on the state of the economy.

The bulletin is a monthly publication that analyses the trends in domestic and global economies.

The NSO’s end-February data release indicates that the Indian economy is intrinsically better positioned than many parts of the world to head into a challenging year ahead, mainly because of its demonstrated resilience and its reliance on domestic drivers, said the article authored by a team led by RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra.

"Year-on-year growth rates do not reflect this pick-up of pace because by construction they are saddled with statistical base effects, and instead suggest a sequential slowing down through successive quarters of 2022-23 to an unsuspecting reader," it said.

It further said India’s real GDP can go up from Rs 159.7 lakh crore in 2022-23 to Rs 170.9 lakh crore against the current projection of Rs 169.7 lakh crore in 2023-24.

"This is simple arithmetic; hardly a hurray at half-time. Also, unlike the global economy, India would not slow down – it would maintain the pace of expansion achieved in 2022-23. We remain optimistic about India, whatever the odds," the article said.

Currently available forecasts of India’s real GDP growth for 2023-24, including those of the RBI, settle between 6 and 6.5 per cent.

The central bank said that the views expressed in the article are those of the authors and do not represent the views of the Reserve Bank of India.