With kharif sowing largely nearing completion, the focus is shifting to crop yields as rainfall remains uneven across large parts of India. While the overall area under major kharif crops has declined only marginally, pockets of deficient rainfall and lower reservoir levels could affect crop productivity, particularly for paddy and pulses.
The area under paddy, pulses, oilseeds, cotton, sugarcane and coarse cereals stood at 109.49 million hectares (Mha), 1.4 per cent lower than the previous year's level, according to the agriculture ministry, reported The Financial Express.
Crisil Intelligence expects the overall kharif acreage to be only marginally lower year-on-year, in the range of 0-1 per cent. However, the distribution of rainfall rather than the headline acreage figure is emerging as a key concern for the season's final output.
"While the overall acreage picture remains broadly stable, some key crops, paddy and ragi have come under pressure due to uneven rainfall distribution and water availability concerns during critical sowing and transplanting windows," Pushan Sharma, Director, Crisil Intelligence, told FE.
Nearly Half Of Districts Have Deficient Rainfall
The rainfall picture varies sharply across regions.
While central India has received precipitation in the normal range, northwest India has recorded a 9.9 per cent deficit. The shortfall is more pronounced in east and north-east India, at 24.8 per cent, and south peninsular India, at 27.8 per cent.
Of around 740 districts, 343 districts, or 47 per cent, have received 'deficient' to 'large deficient' rainfall so far. In contrast, 398 districts, or 53 per cent, have recorded 'normal' to 'large excess' precipitation.
The southern region is facing additional pressure from lower reservoir storage, while pockets of eastern India have also experienced weather-related stress, Crisil Intelligence said.
Overall rainfall was 14.7 per cent below the benchmark till Sunday. The full June-September monsoon is now expected to fall into the 'deficient' category, meaning rainfall below 90 per cent of the benchmark.
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Paddy Area Down Nearly 4 Per Cent
Paddy is among the crops where the effect of deficient rainfall is already visible in acreage.
Rice coverage declined by nearly 4 per cent from the previous year to 42.68 Mha during the ongoing kharif season, the agriculture ministry said.
The ministry attributed the reduction primarily to substantial falls in rice acreage across Karnataka, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra.
With planting activity largely complete, however, the eventual crop output will depend increasingly on conditions during the remaining growth stages.
"With kharif sowing largely complete, attention now turns from acreage to yield, as lower reservoir levels and uneven rainfall during critical crop stages could weigh on productivity," Shashi Kant Singh, Partner – Agriculture, Food and Agribusiness, PwC India, said.
Pulses Acreage Rises, But Tur Remains Under Stress
The picture for pulses is somewhat different on the acreage front.
The area planted under pulses, including tur, urad and moong, has risen marginally to 11.71 Mha compared with the previous year.
However, the increase in cultivated area does not necessarily translate into higher production, with rainfall during the coming weeks remaining important for crop development in parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka.
"Tur crop is currently under stress across parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka, while rains in coming weeks would be beneficial for better yield," Nitin Kalantri, managing director of Latur-based pulses processor Kalantry Food Products, told FE.
Monsoon Recovery In July Was Followed By Another Shortfall
The season's rainfall pattern has been inconsistent.
June rainfall was 36 per cent below the benchmark, before the monsoon recovered in July. Precipitation in July was 1 per cent above the long-period average (LPA), bringing it within the normal range and supporting kharif sowing.
The improvement did not continue into August. Rainfall during the month was 16.3 per cent below the LPA, with all regions other than the monsoon core zone of central India receiving deficient rainfall.
The India Meteorological Department has forecast below-normal rainfall for September, at less than 91 per cent of the benchmark.
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Season Could See Weakest Rainfall Since 2009
The overall monsoon season is now expected to record its lowest rainfall since 2009, with the season likely to remain in the deficient category.
Earlier deficient monsoon years included 2002, when rainfall was 20.9 per cent below the benchmark, followed by 2009 at 18.3 per cent below normal, 2015 at 12.7 per cent below normal and 2014 at 10.15 per cent below normal.
For kharif crops, the immediate concern is therefore less about a sharp change in total planted area and more about what the rainfall pattern means for yields.
The agriculture ministry is continuing to assess the production outlook. An official, however, said productivity is not expected to be impacted significantly.