It is interesting that midway in the seven-phase polling for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) president Amit Shah identified the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) as the main opponent. Although he added the rider that this was so in certain constituencies, the intention was clear: The BJP wants to downgrade the ruling Samajwadi Party’s challenge in the State. There are reasons for Shah to do so.
The first is that he hopes the Muslim votes will split substantially enough to harm the SP but not enough to give an edge to the BSP. This would make the BJP’s task easier. If the Muslim voters get the message that the SP is on slippery ground, a good section of them would tactically vote for the BSP. Minus a major chunk of the minority votes, the SP is finished. It cannot hope to form a Government in 2017 with just the Yadav vote-bank. The upper caste voters have dumped the SP. This despite the party’s alliance with the Congress. The upper castes in any case do not see the Congress as a viable alternative anymore in the State.
On the other hand, Mayawati could be a gainer in certain constituencies with increased Muslim support and the large number of Muslim candidates she has fielded (more than 90). So long as such voting is not in bulk numbers and just enough to damage the SP’s prospects, the BJP would be happy enough. It is not fighting for the minority votes, and is going to win them. The Muslim-Dalit combination had worked for the BSP in 2007, but even then the party would not have sailed through had the upper castes (particularly the Brahmins) not leaned on it in large numbers.
Amit Shah has also been playing on the internal fault lines of the SP. Party patriarch Mulayam Singh seems to have reconciled to the changed equations, agreed to canvas for the party’s alliance candidates, and declared Akhilesh Yadav as the chief ministerial candidate. But this is superficial. The senior Yadav has refrained from campaigning across the State for his party. His comment that all is now well and that old difference have been sorted out, are not translating into action on the ground.
Shivpal Yadav is less condescending. He has not taken back his threat of forming a new outfit after the election result is known on March 11. He has also not shown any enthusiasm to canvas for the SP-Congress alliance candidates. More than the BSP and the BJP, he will be the spoiler for Akhilesh Yadav and his group.
This is not the end. There are reports that the new coalition is not working on the ground, despite strenuous efforts by Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi and Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav. The partnership between the Lohiaites and the Congress is not only irrational but also unworkable. Besides, the Congress does not appear to have brought any benefit to the SP on the table.
And then there is the law and order issue. Both the BJP and the BSP have been hammering away at the Akhilesh regime’s failure to maintain law and order. The BSP is constantly reminding the electorate of its track record in Government in this matter. On its part, the BJP can point to States it rules where there have been no serious concerns on the law and order front.
The BJP’s tactic to boost, just a little bit, the BSP’s image vis-a-vis the SP, has to do with pure politics too. The Uttar Pradesh election as of now at least, appears to be too close to call. There is a buzz around the BJP while the BSP is said to be the hammer that strikes without sound. In the eventuality of a hung House, the BJP and the BSP can do business with each other. Of course, theoretically, the Congress can break away from the SP and tie up with the BSP. But the Congress is unlikely to have the numbers to help the BSP form a Government. Theoretically, it’s also possible that the Congress-SP alliance teams up with Mayawati and effectively slams the door on the BJP’s face.
But hard politics is not about theory. It’s unlikely that the BSP will ever do business with the SP. It would be suicidal for both. The BSP and the BJP had been coalition partners in the Uttar Pradesh Government. Together, they had outwitted Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP. While the experience was not a happy one for either of the two allies, when has the past been a hindrance to future alliances in politics?
At this stage, though, the BJP does not want to be seen as going soft on the BSP even though it raises the latter’s profile every now and then. Prime Minister Narendra’s jibe that the BSP today stood for ‘Behenji Sampatti Party’ (Maywati’s property) hit where it hurts the BSP most — that of a corruption-ridden party. By labelling it thus and the SP as a party of goons, the BJP seeks to occupy the sole position as the deliverer from all ills that plague the State. Will its gambit work?
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