Tripura Bypolls: Stage Set For BJP-CPM Face-Off In Dhanpur And Boxanagar As Tipra Motha Backs Out

The bypolls of Dhanpur and Boxanagar will see a direct fight between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and the Opposition, Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Front. The state's principal Opposition party TIPRA Motha didn’t field candidates in either seat, while another Opposition party, the Congress, has backed the candidates of CPI(M).

The Dhanpur bypoll was necessitated as the sitting MLA and union minister Pratima Bhowmik, who defeated CPM’s Kaushik Chanda, resigned to retain her Lok Sabha seat. The Left has nominated Chanda again while the saffron party nominated Bhowmik's brother Bindu Debnath. He is also the president of BJP's Dhanpur Mandal. 

On the other hand, the Boxanagar seat became vacant after the death of sitting CPI(M) MLA Samsul Haque. The BJP has nominated Tofajjal Hossain, who contested this seat in the polls earlier this year. The Left has nominated Samsul Haque’s son Mizan Hussain, who is the state committee member of the Democratic Youth Federation of India, the youth wing of CPI(M).

These bypolls are crucial for both the BJP and the Left as these polls provide an opportunity for both parties to test their strength ahead of the Lok Sabha polls next year. Boxanagar, a Left bastion, is a Muslim-majority constituency and both parties have nominated Muslim candidates. The saffron party is in no mood to leave any stone unturned to get its only Muslim representative elected to the state assembly. Senior party leaders, including Chief Minister Manik Saha, have started their campaigning for this seat.

In Dhanpur, the BJP faces the challenge to retain this seat. For the Left, this bypoll brings an opportunity to win its support base back, particularly the tribal voters. This seat was a stronghold of the Left till this year. Veteran CPI(M) leader Manik Sarkar, who was the chief minister of the state for four consecutive terms, represented the seat five times. This year, the saffron party was able to win this Left bastion for the first time as a result of Tipra Motha’s candidate Amiya Noatia, who divided the anti-BJP votes by fetching 19% of the valid votes.

Notably, in this seat, tribal voters, who account for around 28%. But in the bypolls, Tipra Motha has decided to opt out of the contest. The tribal party is yet to decide whether to support BJP or CPI(M) in the bypolls.

Kuki MLAs Write To PM Modi For Separate Administration

This week 10 Kuki-Zomi MLAs of Manipur wrote to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, demanding a separate administration for five Kuki-Zomi-majority districts — Churachandpur, Pherzawl, Kangpokpi, Chandel, and Tengnoupal. This is not the first time they have placed this demand.

It has been over 100 days since the ethnic violence broke out between Meiteis and Kuki-Zomis, leaving more than 160 dead in the northeastern state. Despite claims of normalcy returning, there have been incidents of violence in parts of Manipur. On Friday morning, armed miscreants killed three Kuki village volunteers in Thowai Kuki village in the Kamjong district. According to the state’s English daily Sangai Express, Kuki militants on Wednesday fired several rounds of shots and mortars in Thamnapokpi of Bishnupur district.

This horrific ethnic violence has only deepened the existing fault lines between Meiteis and Kuki-Zomis — and the need of the hour is to reduce this fault line as much as possible. Unfortunately, this demand for a separate administration — stiffly opposed by the Meitei community, who comprise little over 50% of the state’s population — is likely to only worsen the existing fault lines between Meiteis and Kuki-Zomis.

Not only this, the demand also has the potential to escalate the old fault lines between Kuki-Zomis and Nagas as some hill areas of the state are claimed by the Nagas as their ancestral lands. For example, the Chandel district, which is included by the Kuki-Zomis in their demand for a separate administration, has a mixed population of Kuki-Zomis and Nagas, who are the third-largest community in the state. 

Mizoram Congress Forms Mizoram Secular Alliance Ahead Of Polls

The Congress unit of Mizoram has formed the Mizoram Secular Alliance to “save the state’s secular fabric” and counter the BJP’s Hindutva ideology in the northeast. This was stated by Lallianchhunga, the spokesperson of the state party unit.

Whatever may be the claims of the Congress, the actual reason for the formation of the alliance seems to be the upcoming assembly polls. The state was last ruled by Congress for 10 years from 2008 to 2018. However, in the last assembly elections, the party not only lost the polls, it was relegated to the third position with the new Zoram People’s Movement emerging as the main Opposition party in the state.  

There have been signs of the ruling Mizo National Front led by chief minister Zoramthanga losing some support due to the gradual rise of anti-incumbency but the Congress is yet to benefit from the anti-incumbency wave against the ruling party. Instead, the ZPM seems to be benefitting from the anti-incumbency wave — and this was visible this year when the party swept the first Lunglei Municipal Council polls.

Aware of this ground reality, Congress has decided to form the MSA to find allies in the state in order to stay afloat in the state politics, currently dominated by MNF and ZPM. This initiative, as of now, has garnered support from the two regional parties — Mizoram People’s Convention and Zoram Nationalist Party. It has to be mentioned that ZNP allied with BJP in 2014.

 

The author is a political commentator. 

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