The real story behind the presidential contest is not the suspense on who will be Rashtrapati Bhavan’s next occupant; that’s settled. It’s about Opposition unity. That’s why the Congress, after the opposition outfits met on June 23, emphasised that “17 parties” had backed Meira Kumar’s candidature. The message being sent out is that the unity is not only there but also will be there for the 2019 Lok Sabha contest. The dress rehearsal is thus complete.



But the fissures in the Congress-led Opposition camp are evident despite attempts to paper over them. Barring the DMK, the Rashtriya Janta Dal and the Trinamool Congress, no major opposition party (in terms of electoral numbers) has endorsed Meira Kumar’s name. Not the Janata Dal (United), not the Biju Janata Dal, not the AIADMK. They are all opposed to the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA and yet they have supported its candidate, Ram Nath Kovind. 



This is interesting for various reasons. Bihar Chief Minister and JD (U) leader Nitish Kumar broke away from the opposition ranks and backed Kovind. This,despite his party having not just an alliance with both the Congress and the RJD in the State but also running the Government in partnership with them. This is not the first time that Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) has taken a stand different from that of its allies. It had backed the Centre’s demonetisation drive and taken the wind out of the Opposition’s sails in the process. 



Nitish Kumar has adopted such strategy for obvious reasons. He is preparing the ground for a political realignment, if push comes to shove. The Chief Minister is clearly uncomfortable with his experience in governing alongside the RJD. To worsen matters, there has been a slew of accusations against members of the Lalu Prasad family, with some having come under the Income Tax Department’s lens for amassing benami property. Unlike the RJD and the Congress, he has not dismissed the move as being ‘politically motivated’. Interestingly, some months ago, Nitish Kumar had asked the Centre to forcefully implement the benami property Act against offenders - though he had then no way of knowing that the law would be applied against his allies.



The talk that the Bihar Chief Minister may eventually prefer links with the RJD to snap, is still in the realm of speculation. It’s too early to guess his next course of action. But there is increasing realisation within his camp followers that he can remain indifferent only at the cost of his credibility. His clean image would be severely dented if he were to continue his alliance with a party whose senior leaders are caught up in a spate of serious allegations and are being probed. The grand alliance in Bihar is under stress. Will it break, and when, is the question.



On the other hand, BJD’s Naveen Patnaik is not looking to return to the NDA fold — at least there are no indications to this effect. Only recently, his party suffered a shock when the BJP stormed second in local body elections in Odisha, and even first in many segments — out of nowhere. It has been a wake-up call for him ahead of the 2019 general election and the State Assembly poll.  He had had every reason to firm up his opposition to the BJP, and yet has backed Kovind’s candidature. The Congress could not win him over.



The AIADMK, faction-ridden as it is, should have been easy picking for the Opposition camp. But the two major warring groups led by Chief Minister E Palaniswami and O Panneerselvam respectively, have supported the NDA’s choice. It can be argued that with the DMK on the Opposition side, no AIADMK faction could be seen as being part of such a combine. But, if the Trinamool Congress and the Left can be on the same side, as also the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, the DMK and the AIADMK too could have. That both factions of the Dravidian party should have decided to cast their lot with the NDA candidate, speaks volumes of the NDA’s effective political management.



One interesting aside is to be noted. The RJD is playing with regional sentiment when it says that Nitish Kumar should support Meira Kumar because she is the ‘daughter of Bihar’. Regionalism is what led the Shiv Sena to back the Congress-led UPA’s choice of Pratibha Patil as the presidential candidate. If this is to be applied to Uttar Pradesh, then both Akhilesh Yadav and BSP chief Mayawati should be endorsing Kovind, as he a ‘son of Uttar Pradesh’. 



Incidentally, Mayawati had earlier indicated her support for Kovind but has now switched sides after Meira Kumar’s name was adopted. The Scheduled Castes versus Scheduled Castes battle has been set up by the Congress-led Opposition. Parties now seen in the Congress camp, and accusing the BJP of pandering to caste sentiments in choosing Kovind, are silent over the logic of fielding Meira Kumar. There is no point in arguing that she has other credentials; so does Kovind.


The Congress may take solace in small achievements, but the reality is that Opposition unity has been far from achieved. Even its new friendship with Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress may not be long-lasting. What will happen in 2019 — will the Congress dump the Left and tie up with her? For the Trinamool Congress and the Left parties, being on the same side of the presidential contest is one thing, But seeking votes directly from the people will pit them bitterly against each other. 2019 is not an year the Congress can look forward to with hope.


(The writer is a senior political commentator and public affairs analyst)

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