With Trump's victory common Pakistanis can be expected to take a greater disliking towards America. However, the ruling establishment is trying to look normal. So the Sharif Government released a complete read out of the phone conversation between Trump and Sharif when latter called to congratulate him on his victory.
According to this read out, Trump showered encomiums on Sharif and his country, hailing Sharif as a "terrific guy" with a "great reputation" and Pakistan as a country with "great opportunities" and "most intelligent people".
Many US commentators called the release as breach of protocol and others wondered about what effect it would have on India-US relations. In Pakistan, the opposition, disbelieving the Government's version, saw this as an attempt by Sharif, who is facing corruption allegations in the Panama Papers scandal, to seek endorsement from someone like Trump. Sharif is reportedly eager to meet Trump and may travel to the US to attend his swearing-in ceremony.
As all this happened, a US Congessional Committee proposed to make a part of US aid contingent upon Pakistan taking "demonstrable actions" against the 'Haqqani Network' and asked the US Defence Secretary to closely monitor that Pakistan is not diverting American funds to persecute ethnic groups like Balochs, Sindhis and Hazaras.
Since then Trump's picks for various Administration posts may have opened a new problem area for Pakistan-US relations. General Flynn, who is Trump's choice for the post of National Security Adviser, is known for his harsh views on Islam. According to the Washington Post, Gen Flynn was removed as the head of Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) by President Barack Obama for his "hardline views on Islam".
Recently he has been under fire for unknowingly sharing intelligence secrets with US allies and with Pakistan while serving in Afghanistan during 2009-10, but in case he makes it to the office of NSA, Pakistanis may find it quite hard to persist with their policy of fomenting terrorism in Afghanistan.
In "Field of Fight", a book coauthored by him, Gen Flynn writes, "We need to have some tough love conversations with the leaders of countries who pretend to be our friends, but who also collaborate with our enemies. Countries like Pakistan need to be told that we will not tolerate the existence of training camps and safe havens for Taliban, Haqqani, and al Qaeda forces on their territory, nor will we permit their banks and other financial institutions to move illicit funds for the terror network. They are going to have to choose, and if they continue to help the jihadis, we are going to treat them harshly, cutting them off from American assistance, and operating against enemy safe havens."
However, Pakistanis are trying to find some solace in the designation of Gen James Mattis as next US Defence Secretary who is reputed to be soft on Pakistan and as CENTCOM chief publicly appreciated Pakistan's "contributions to the war on terror". But that was in the aftermath of the Raymond Davis affair and the targetted assassination of Osama bin Laden by US Navy SEALS in Abbottabad.
What is being ignored by many about Gen Mattis is that, like Trump and Flynn, he has not been politically correct about Islamism which has been central to Pakistan's identity, its domestic and foreign policies, and to its military doctrine. In a speech given in 2015 at Heritage Foundation, Gen Mattis touched upon the topic: "Is political Islam in the best interest of the United States? … If we won’t even ask the question then how do we even get to the point of recognising which is our side in the fight? And if we don’t take our own side in this fight we’re leaving others adrift."
Add to all this Trump's harsh stance on China. Trump has already signalled rescinding of Washington's unconditional commitment to 'One China' policy which has caused lot of heartburn in Beijing. For quite sometime now China has shielded Pakistani Jihadist proxies like Maulana Masood Azhar from UNSC sanctions with a view to direct Jihadi fire towards India and to keep their ire away from strategic expansion being conducted through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Punjab which happen to be the main theatres of their operations.
So we regularly hear Hafiz Saeed hailing the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor in his speeches. In his book "Field of Fire", Gen Flynn displays amazing clarity on this nexus after specifically naming China and North Korea: "Suffice to say, the same sort of cooperation binds together jihadis, Communists and garden-variety tyrants”.
Pakistan has for long run a clandestine nuclear proliferation network with both these countries. In the face of such ideological clarity emerging from Team Trump, Pakistan may find it extremely hard to balance its relations with US and China.
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