With the Rajasthan assembly term ending soon and an election is scheduled to be held later this year, the political landscape is buzzing with anticipation as everyone is waiting to see if the state will continue with its trend of not bringing back the same government or will break the trend and give the Congress another chance. The outcome of this election looms as a pivotal moment for both the ruling Congress Party and the broader national politics. In the last five years, Rajasthan has seen the Congress at the helm, and felt a lot of political turbulence. The state became a recurring headline for all the wrong reasons, largely thanks to the power struggle between Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and his former deputy Sachin Pilot. Their incessant infighting reached such alarming levels that, on many occasions, it seemed the government teetered on the brink of collapse. It weathered the storm every time, somehow.
As the electoral battleground gets ready, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) senses an opportunity. It's the classic scenario of anti-incumbency combined with the internal strife that is plaguing the Congress. However, amid all the chaos, there is one undeniable fact — that Ashok Gehlot still holds sway in the desert state. For the Congress to mount a comeback, it may need to keep Gehlot as the face of the government. His popularity is an asset that the party can ill afford to squander away at this moment. To complement this, the Congress needs to go beyond mere rhetoric and showcase its welfare schemes and direct money transfer policies initiated by Gehlot's government.
Such policies have the potential to resonate with voters, like they have in the past in Delhi. And if the Congress can effectively communicate these 'accomplishments' and future promises, it might just be the lifeline it needs to return to power. In the run-up to the Rajasthan election, all eyes are on the Congress, waiting to see if it can rise above internal discord, and present a compelling vision for the state's future. The electoral chessboard is set, and the pieces are moving; the next move belongs to the Congress.
ABP-Cvoter Survey Highlights
In the realm of Indian politics, Rajasthan has often been a land of intriguing paradoxes. The prevailing sentiment here has historically leaned towards the ruling party's defeat. The latest ABP-CVoter survey prediction echoes a similar trend. According to the survey's findings, the BJP appears poised to reclaim power in Rajasthan, securing an estimated 109-119 seats. In contrast, the Congress is projected to garner 78-88 seats. It's a projection that mirrors past trends and anticipates a shift in the state's political dynamics.
However, there is a twist to this narrative. The survey gives a clear edge to the BJP, but also finds CM Gehlot as the most popular leader. Gehlot emerged as the most favoured face for the CM post, enjoying the support of around 35% of the electorate. In the complex tapestry of Rajasthan politics, his appeal appears to transcend party lines. His leadership is seen as a reassuring constant, even in the face of potential party setbacks.
In comparison, former CM Vasundhara Raje found the support of 25% of the respondents, while Sachin Pilot garnered modest 19% votes as a prospective chief minister. As the electoral battle in Rajasthan unfolds, it's evident that the state's voters are discerning and pragmatic. While the survey hints at a potential power shift, it also underscores the significance of leadership and individual popularity in shaping political outcomes. Rajasthan's political landscape remains as dynamic as ever, promising a keenly watched election with numerous variables at play.
Impact Of Congress Infighting
Due to its fractured politics, the Congress party in Rajasthan will never be able to have an easy election. In the past few years, the people of Rajasthan have become weary of the relentless infighting within the party. The MLAs of the ruling party are totally divided into multiple camps, primarily between Gehlot and Pilot. The Congress has repeatedly failed to present a united front in the state over the past five years.
The impending election will be divisive in multiple ways. If the Congress cannot concentrate on the government's welfare and pro-poor programmes, its electoral performance will be negatively impacted by the polarisation caused by internal conflict. It is true that after becoming president of the Congress, Mallikarjun Kharge attempted to broker a truce between Gehlot and Pilot in Rajasthan. Pilot's inclusion in the Congress Working Committee, the party's highest decision-making authority, is a significant strategic move, and it is essential to reap the benefits of this decision by promoting CM Gehlot's policies in Rajasthan.
Advantages Of Ashok Gehlot As CM Face
Ashok Gehlot, the seasoned statesman of Rajasthan politics, has often sparked debate and dissent among critics. Yet, even his harshest detractors cannot deny one fundamental truth — he stands as the towering unifier of Rajasthan's political landscape. In the annals of the state's electoral history, Gehlot has faced his share of challenges. Despite commendable grassroots efforts, the Congress faltered in the 2003 and 2013 elections under his leadership. Critics have voiced concerns about his political style, suggesting he struggled to combat the waves of anti-incumbency.
However, today's political scene in Rajasthan bears little resemblance to the past. The BJP is grappling with its own internal discord with infighting at its peak. The sidelining of former CM Vasundhara Raje in the BJP's ongoing yatra speaks volumes. The BJP finds itself torn between the leadership of Raje, Rajendra Singh Rathore, the incumbent Leader of Opposition at the Rajasthan Legislative Assembly, and Gajendra Singh Shekhawat.
In this backdrop, CM Gehlot finds himself presented with a unique advantage. Recent history reveals that the BJP has faltered in state elections when solely relying on the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Gehlot's ability to unify, coupled with his deep-rooted connection with the people of Rajasthan, could prove decisive. In an era where personality often takes precedence, Gehlot's leadership embodies stability and experience. As the battle lines get drawn, and strategies are unveiled, the narrative of Rajasthan politics promises to be as captivating as ever, with Gehlot at its centre.
Gehlot's Model Of Governance
Over the past five years, CM Ashok Gehlot has been architecting a distinct model of governance that has transformed Rajasthan's political landscape. At its core, his approach prioritises the welfare of the state's underprivileged citizens, combining freebies with innovative direct cash transfer initiatives. A standout among these policies is the popular Mukhyamantri Chiranjeevi Yojana, which extends health insurance worth Rs 25 lakh to Rajasthan's impoverished residents.
Additionally, the reintroduction of the old pension scheme under Gehlot's leadership has injected fresh vitality into the Congress government. The revival of the social security pension scheme, the provision of gas cylinders at affordable prices, the Indira Rasoi Yojna, and free education opportunities for girls are just some of the initiatives ushered in during this tenure and are considered popular.
A striking feature of Gehlot's strategy is his targeting of the female voter base through incentives like free smartphones, ostensibly aimed to solidify their support for the Congress government. Gehlot's emphasis is on populist schemes, a defining feature of opposition chief ministers across India. States like West Bengal, led by Mamata Banerjee, and Delhi, governed by Arvind Kejriwal, have already demonstrated the electoral success of pro-poor welfare policies. Gehlot's Rajasthan is also harnessing the potential of populist governance.
At a recent rally in Rajasthan, Priyanka Gandhi emphasised the Gehlot government's welfare initiatives. Both the Congress and the BJP are grappling with organisational challenges in the state. The Congress must also reckon with anti-incumbency that could pose a formidable obstacle. To navigate this, the best strategy for the party would be to spotlight the Gehlot government's pro-poor policies, women-centric benefits, and welfare programmes, if it wants to retain power.
The author teaches journalism at St. Xavier's College (autonomous), Kolkata, and is a political columnist.
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