Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made four trips to Kerala this year in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha election. For sure, it goes to show the significance the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) attaches to the state, which may be considered the party's last frontier of sorts. The PM made it a point to make ‘guarantees’ the centrepiece of his speeches, and yet all these visits may still not guarantee the BJP a chance of opening its account in Kerala.
The biggest challenge for the BJP in the state is the prevalence of the two entrenched fronts — the Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist), and the United Democratic Front (UDF) led by the Congress. In contrast, the BJP doesn’t have any major ally, apart from the Thushar Vellappally-led Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS).
The cycle of the LDF and the UDF alternating in power in the state may have been broken finally after four decades in 2021, but the UDF continues to be stronger in Lok Sabha elections in Kerala, as reflected in Rahul Gandhi choosing to contest from Wayanad yet again.
True, the BJP may not be an ‘untouchable’ to Kerala politicians anymore — going by the likes of Padmaja Venugopal (daughter of former Kerala CM K Karunakaran) joining the saffron party in recent times — but no ‘big fish’ has been netted until date.
Minority Outreach
The BJP’s constraints in Kerala notwithstanding, both the LDF and the UDF reserve a major part of their campaigns to the saffron party. This is primarily intended to attract the Muslim vote and for posturing purposes, on who is better at taking on the BJP.
Ever since the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) rules have been notified in the run-up to the Lok Sabha election, the CPI(M) has been trying to fashion itself as the champion of Muslims, trying to paint the Congress and the UDF as less than effective on this count.
No less than Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan will be addressing four anti-CAA rallies in Malabar in Kozhikode, Kasaragode, Kannur and Malappuram (along with a fifth in Kollam) — leaving nobody in doubt whom the party is courting.
The state government has also tactically withdrawn a majority of the 800-odd anti-CAA cases registered against protesters since 2018, many of which were in advanced stages.
The government also followed it up by withdrawing the cases against the Latin Christian fisherfolk in Vizhinjam — registered during the protests against the construction of the international seaport in Thiruvananthapuram.
Left Narratives In Vadakara And Alappuzha
The CPI(M) strategy to get a slice of the Muslim pie also includes a couple of poll narratives, amplified in the media and public by the intellectuals and writers owing allegiance to the Left.
In Vadakara, where CPI(M)’s KK Shailaja is locked in a tight contest against Shafi Parambil of Congress, the Left narrative is focused firmly on the BJP’s chances of winning in Palakkad — from where Shafi Parambil is the incumbent MLA — in the event of a bypoll. In the 2021 assembly polls, Parambil had emerged victorious in a photo finish against E Sreedharan (on a BJP ticket), although the ‘Metro Man’ has since ruled out contesting on account of his advanced age. If that is one instance of the Left using the bogey of BJP to get the Muslim vote, it has come up with another dog whistle in Alappuzha where KC Venugopal is taking on lone sitting CPI(M) Kerala Lok Sabha MP in AM Arif.
The Left argument against Venugopal’s contest in Alappuzha rests on his remaining two-year term in the Rajya Sabha and the prospect of the BJP winning it at a future date — in the event of the All-India Congress Committee (AICC) general secretary winning from the constituency he represented twice earlier.
Congress Narratives
The Congress narratives primarily revolve around the anti-incumbency prevailing on the ground against the Pinarayi Vijayan-led government and the alleged financial mismanagement leading to the non-distribution of the Rs 1600 welfare pensions for seven months, affecting the poorest of poor. The barbarism unleashed by the Students Federation of India (SFI) — affiliated to the CPI(M) — in colleges across the state is also an issue.
To counter the CPI (M) narrative of the Left being more capable of taking on the BJP, the Congress has gone after LDF Convener EP Jayarajan, who had earlier attested to the strength of the candidates fielded by the saffron party in constituencies such as Thiruvananthapuram, Attingal and Thrissur.
By invoking a business deal between Rajeev Chandrasekhar’s Jupiter Capital and a resort whose shares are held by the wife and son of Jayarajan, the Congress is trying to project the Left and the BJP of having entered into a ‘secret deal’ to undercut the Congress — in a bid to outwit the CPI(M)’s attempts to woo the Muslim community.
BJP Prospects In Kerala
Being an outsized component of the LDF and UDF campaigns apart, the BJP’s actual prospects of opening its account has diminished significantly after it named Anil Antony as its Pathanamthitta candidate and the Congress moved K Muraleedharan from Vadakara to Thrissur against Suresh Gopi.
That probably leaves Thiruvananthapuram as its best bet, with Shashi Tharoor having to deal with voter fatigue after 15 years as MP. However, there is a flip side to this: the moment Tharoor’s chances look bleak or the BJP looks like winning a seat anywhere in Kerala, a counter polarisation is inevitable, giving an edge to whoever is most likely to pip the BJP.
And that’s most likely to repeat in Thrissur and Thiruvananthapuram this time as well — relegating the BJP’s role to playing the bogeyman of Kerala politics.
The author is a senior journalist and political columnist.
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